Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Replacement opportunities for older-generation single-aisle operators
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Several airlines announced orders for new-generation single-aisle aircraft in recent months. Air France – KLM and jet2.com announced Airbus A320neo family orders, while Allegiant and Qatar announced Boeing 737 MAX deals. SmartLynx, a Latvian ACMI carrier, will operate 737 MAXes on operating leases from SMBC Aviation Capital.
Credit: Allegiant Airlines
Despite the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines are eager to order newer-generation single-aisle aircraft to improve their environmental footprint and secure delivery slots, notably on the A320 production line. The low level of interest rates by historical standards also facilitates those transactions.
(This analysis does not include the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the full impacts of which to commercial aviation are still in the future.)
Such orders represent once-in-a-generation opportunities for OEMs to “flip” an airline away from the other one.
Many airlines operate A320ceos or 737 NGs but have not yet ordered new-generation single-aisle aircraft. LNA analyses this population.
Summary
- Breaking down the population into four categories;
- Airlines unlikely to place orders in the near term;
- Two types of potential customers.
HOTR: When will Boeing return 737 rates to pre-grounding level?
By the Leeham News Team
March 5, 2022, © Leeham News: When will Boeing return the 737 production levels to the pre-grounding rate of 52/mo?
It’s a question that is of key interest to the industry, employees, and the always-looming investment community. Boeing hasn’t given any guidance beyond the 31/mo target sometime this year. The rate is currently in the low-to-mid 20s.
But if one carefully watches the Boeing supply chain, some of these publicly held companies give information to their own investors in public forums from which one can look at Boeing.
For example, Allegheny Technologies Inc., more commonly known as ATI, gave very specific guidance during its Feb. 17 investors’ day. Seaport Global, a boutique shop, covers ATI and was the first to report the guidance.
“ATI stated that, ‘in line with our customers’ forecasts…when we look at 2025, we see single-aisle going to 127/mo,’” Seaport wrote. In this context, ATI’s customers are Airbus, Boeing, and the three engine OEMs. Airbus is considering an A320 family rate 75/mo in 2025. Simple math says Boeing’s MAX rate will be 52/mo by then. In its note, Seaport was more conservative, predicting rate 47 by 2025.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 9. Parallel Hybrids.
March 4, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 9P. Parallel Hybrid, the Deeper Discussion.
We look into the Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace, and De Havilland project to create a Parallel Hybrid propulsion alternative for the Dash 8 turboprops.
The project “targets a 30% reduction in fuel burn and CO2 emissions, compared to a modern regional turboprop airliner” according to the Pratt & Whitney press release.
Figure 1. The Parallel Hybrid components of the project. Source: Pratt & Whitney video.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 9P. Parallel Hybrid. The deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 4, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 9. Parallel Hybrid. It uses Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model from our consultancy practice to analyze the design of a Parallel Hybrid aircraft for regional operations.
Our design brief is to make turboprop upgrade packages for De Havilland DH8-200,-300, and-400 aircraft. By using a Parallel Hybrid we could “target a 30% reduction in fuel burn and CO2 emissions, compared to a modern regional turboprop airliner” according to Pratt & Whitney Canada. Time to check if we can reach these levels.
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the predicted performance of a new version of Boeing’s 787-10 with an increased Gross Weight as announced by Boeing (called 787-10 HGW by us). We compared its performance and economics to Airbus’ A350-900, the nearest competitor.
The comparison was over a very long route, LAX to Sydney, where the 787-10 HGW performed well but was limited on the cargo side. Now we fly San Franciso to Tokyo, a more typical route for these aircraft, looking at the performance and operating economics.
Summary
- The 787-10 can perform long routes like LAX to Sydney in the HGW version but has payload limits compared with an A350-900.
- On the typical 10 to 12 hours routes, the 787-10 HGW shows its strengths.
HOTR: Airbus responds to Qatar lawsuit; (Update): Boeing statement on Russia-Ukraine
By the Leeham News Team
Feb. 28, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus last Friday filed its answer to the lawsuit filed by Qatar Airways over the A350 paint issues. Qatar claims 21 A350s have defective paint issues that lead to safety concerns for lightning protection. Qatar’s national regulator grounded the airplanes.
The manufacturer replies in its answer that it believes the regulator acted at the airline’s request, which Airbus believes was motivated by economic reasons rather than safety issues.
Airbus also said that the paint stripping of the A350 intended for repainting was improperly done and deviated from Airbus’ procedures outlined in its manuals.
The large twin-aisle and freighter replacement market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 28th, 2022, © Leeham News: In recent weeks, we compared the 787-10 Heavy Gross Weight (HGW) performance against the A350-900. The 787-10 HGW will impact sales campaigns against the A350-900 and those of larger aircraft, the A350-1000 and 777X, and large freighters.
LNA now analyses the potential replacement market for very large aircraft (seating 350 or more passengers in standard configurations) and large factory-built freighters.
Summary
- Large twin-aisle campaign opportunities;
- Passenger and cargo fleet commonality considerations;
- Large factory freighter operators.
Pontifications: Ukraine impact on commercial aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 28, 2022, © Leeham News: The clouds are very dark over Ukraine today. The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by an international autocratic lying amoral thug is horrible. What the implications are for neighboring European countries, the greater Europe, the US, and the rest of the world won’t be fully understood for months.
But reality is reality, and LNA’s focus on commercial aviation must look at things from this perspective—narrow as it is in the context of human tolls underway in Ukraine now. In the dark cloud of the Ukraine crisis, we must look at what the impacts might be on commercial aviation.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 8. Serial Hybrids.
February 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 8P. Serial Hybrid, the deeper discussion.
We take an ES-19 type of battery aircraft and add a range extender to avoid the inadequate range we found in Part 6 and 6P.
Initially, it seems a good idea. We can use the benefits of the battery and then complement it with energy from the range extender. As you systematically work through the concept, the problems surface.
Figure 1. Serial Hybrid works for cars (Toyota Prius pictured), but not for aircraft. Picture: Toyota.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 8P. Serial Hybrid. The deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm.
February 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 8. Serial Hybrid. It uses Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model from our consultancy practice to analyze the design of a hybrid aircraft for short-haul commuter operations.
Our design brief is to make an aircraft that uses a minimum of carbon-based fuel by combining battery-based energy with energy from a generator driven by a gas turbine. Such a combination is called a Serial Hybrid.
Figure 1. Different electric aircraft architectures compared with the classical Turbofan/Turboprop. Source: Leeham Co.