Would an A330-900F Make Sense? Part 2: Cost Advantage
By Bjorn Fehrm • Aerospace Analyst
October 22, 2026
Airbus started the certification test flights of its intercontinental A350F freighter last month (Figure 1). It targets the dedicated freighter market dominated by Boeing. With 115 firm orders from 14 customers, the program is off to a good start.
We started an analysis last week to see if Airbus could easily complement the A350F with a distribution freighter based on the A330-900, as its engines, the Rolls-Royce Trent 7000, do not fall under a new production ban due to high emissions.
Figure 1: The Airbus A350F being readied for first flight. Photo credit: Airbus
Boeing has the strength of an intercontinental freighter, the 777F, and a distribution freighter, the 767-300F, but both aircraft fall under the ICAO ban on new production after 2027 because their engines have too high emissions. FAA has banned new 767-300ER deliveries from 2028 but allows a total of 35 777Fs to be produced until 2030, when Boeing shall have the 777-8F ready to take over the international freighter role.
How to replace the 767-300ER with a factory freighter is undecided. For this need, the market will have to use freighter-converted passenger aircraft, so-called P2F (passenger to freighter), as the ICAO ban does not apply to older feedstock entering a conversion chain.
An A330-900F would be a modest development, as a lot of freighter adaptations could be taken from the A330-200F, an Airbus factory freighter that stopped being produced in 2017.
To understand how an A330-900F would perform, we use the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to fly the A330-900F on a typical route against the 767-300F, 767-300P2F and an A330-300P2F to understand their operational economics. Does an A330-900F have a case in an environment of high fuel costs?
RTX’s Booming Defense Segment Lifts All Ships
By Karl Sinclair • Contributing Writer
October 21, 2026
In the third quarter of 2026, RTX received over $59 billion of new awards, including some $37 billion on the Tomahawk and AMRAAM, along with the SM6 and SM3-1B programs. This boosted the RTX backlog to $340 billion.
“We are very pleased with our collaboration with the Department of War on these contracts,” said CEO Chris Calio. “They will be a significant revenue driver for Raytheon over the next decade.”
P&W’s geared turbofan engines are commercial unit’s lynchpin product. Photo credit: Pratt & Whitney
On the commercial side, Pratt & Whitney picked up $22 billion of new orders during the quarter, with orders topping 800 new engines since the start of the year, pushing the backlog to over 8,000 powerplants.
Collins Aerospace, the third division at RTX, increased orders by 20%, year-over-year.
This translated into consolidated revenues of $25 billion in the third quarter, up from $22.5 billion for the same period last year.
Year-to-date revenues leapt to $71.7 billion, up from $64.4 billion, a year ago, a gain of $7.3 billion.
Adjusted earnings at the company grew by $1 billion for the quarter and $1.9 billion for the year.
Collins led the way with a quarterly increase of 21.3%, followed by Raytheon at 14.1% and finally P&W at 10.5% in profit margin. For the nine months of 2026, it was 18.4%, 14% and 9.2%, respectively.
The company generated $2.1 billion in free cash flow, including $300 million in IEEPA recovery. (Eligible importers can recover tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) following the U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling that struck down the duties as unlawful.)
GE Rides Strong Services Tailwinds Despite Challenging Times
By Karl Sinclair • Contributing Writer
October 21, 2026
Enginemakers increasingly rely on servicing rather than selling engines. GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp said as much on the company’s third-quarter earnings call on October 20.
“From a services perspective, that is what really drives this business,” Culp said. “In the third quarter, we saw very strong performance, orders up 23%, spare parts up even more.”
For the third quarter of this year, GE reported strong results for the company across its commercial and military segments.
The GE9X turbofan is designed to power the still-uncertified Boeing 777X family of widebody jets. Photo credit: LNA Archives
Total revenues rose to $14.1 billion for the period (compared with $12.2 billion in 2025) and hit $39.9 billion for the first nine months of the year (versus $33.1 billion in 2025).
Profits followed suit with adjusted profits (non-GAAP) of $3 billion for the period ($2.3 billion in 2025) and $8.3 billion for the year ($6.8 billion in 2025).
This translates to a 20% jump in revenue and a 9% growth in earnings, year-over-year.
Boeing 737 Max 10 Clears Certification with FAA
By Howard Hardee • Editor
October 20, 2026
After years of delays, Boeing has finally secured an amended type certificate for the much-anticipated 737 Max 10, the most-stretched and highest-capacity variant in the airframer’s latest-generation family of single-aisle jets.
The decision marks the end of a years-long saga that has seen Boeing’s the Max program placed under intense scrutiny, with certification efforts held up by a series of technical issues and more-complex certifcation requirements.
The FAA certified the aircraft on October 20, confirming earlier reporting by Leeham News and Analysis (LNA). The milestone represents a massive win for Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) and company CEO Kelly Ortberg, who had identified the Max 10’s certification as a mission-critical goal when he took the job in August 2024.
Certification of the Max 10 also finally completes the full Max lineup, following the Max 7’s certification earlier this year. The variant “builds on the family’s architecture while taking capabilities to a new level,” Boeing said, pointing to its 230-seat capacity in a “maximum seating configuration,” and the “lowest seat costs of any single-aisle in service.”
The aircraft’s sweet spot is 185-210 passengers, however, with a range of about 3,100 nm (5,740 km).
The first Max 10 fuselage under assembly at Boeing’s North Line in Everett, Washington, in July 2026. The aircraft is earmarked for delivery to WestJet. Photo credit: Jennifer Buchanan/Seattle Times/Pool
“Completing the certification program clears the path for us to deliver a Boeing airplane that will set a new standard in commercial aviation,” said Stephanie Pope, CEO of BCA. “The 737-10 offers greater capacity, longer range and the best seat economics in its class, a platform that will create more value and opportunities for airlines around the world.
“We are also delighted to complete the 737 Max family and provide our customers the most-efficient and flexible single-aisle airplane portfolio in the industry.”
Why Airbus Cannot Easily Pair RISE Open Fan with Second Engine Option
By Howard Hardee • Editor
October 20, 2026
Is there a scenario where Airbus offers two radically different engine configurations on its next-generation single-aisle aircraft? It is an unlikely development pathway.
But let’s break down why the question is worth asking.
Airbus would almost certainly prefer the successor to the A320neo family to have two engine options, both compatible with a common wing for production-efficiency purposes. But how the European aerospace group could select CFM International’s RISE Open Fan concept while offering another, more conventional option for airlines is unclear. That is because no competing enginemakers are actively developing a similar open rotor configuration.
Addressing reporters in Toulouse on October 14, Airbus Commercial Aircraft CEO Lars Wagner told Leeham News and Analysis (LNA) that the scenario where it offers two engine options with two configurations—in order to accommodate both open rotor and ducted engine designs—is “probably not” going to happen.
“The technologies of open rotor and ducted fan are different, and it’s going to be a drag and a negative effect if you put it on a similar wing,” he said.
An Airbus A321XLR taking off during the Paris air show in 2025. Photo credit: David McIntosh/AIN
It is likely Airbus’ preference to offer two engine options as it does with the A320neo family, which is powered by either CFM Leap 1-A turbofans or Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) engines.
Airbus insists it is seriously studying the open rotor design advanced by CFM’s RISE program, which the companies say could deliver a major efficiency leap. But an open rotor design demands a different wing shape to allow ground clearance for the massive fan.
Because no rival enginemakers are developing an open rotor configuration for single-aisle aircraft, it would be difficult to envision Airbus pairing the RISE Open Fan engine with a more conventional, next-generation ducted turbofan. Doing so would essentially require two wing options—a massively complicated proposition.
Selecting a sole-source engine supplier for the A320neo’s successor is not out of the question, however.
Open Comment Thread: Week of October 19, 2026
By Leeham News and Analysis Staff
October 19
Back by popular demand, Leeham News and Analysis (LNA) has reintroduced its weekly open comment thread for general discussion topics.
Several readers have decried off-topic commentary in subject-specific story threads. We have heard your complaints and delivered the desired forum.
Boeing’s widebody production facility in Everett, Washington, circa 2011. Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
LNA‘s Reader Comment Rules still apply. Above all, be decent to one another; if threads devolve bickering and personal attacks, website comments could be turned off entirely. This is not the editorial staff’s desired outcome, so please keep conversations civil, even when disagreements arise.
In other words, cool your jets.
This week promises to deliver healthy portions of aerospace news. Boeing appears close to securing an amended type certificate for the 737 Max 10. GE Aerospace and RTX subsidiary Pratt & Whitney will report third-quarter earnings on October 20, while United Airlines will share its financial results on October 22.
Moving forward, LNA will publish an open comment thread on Mondays by 12:00 Seattle time (holidays excepted).
Boeing Hoping to Secure 737 Max 10 Certification Ahead of Earnings
By Howard Hardee • Editor
October 19, 2026
Certification of the 737 Max 10 appears close at hand once again. The FAA could issue Boeing a type certificate as soon as October 20, sources tell Leeham News and Analysis (LNA).
Several aerospace analysts have shared that certification of the most-stretched variant in the Max lineup is “imminent,” following reports from The Air Current and Reuters late last week.
In an unofficial quiet period ahead of its October 27 earnings call, Boeing has deferred comment to the FAA, which is so far silent on the matter of finally approving the Max 10 for service-entry next year. Such news would likely excite investors; presently, the company’s stock price is down more than 10% year-over-year.
Following the 737 Max crashes of 2018-19, the FAA’s commercial aircraft certification process slowed to a crawl. While Boeing had secured type certificates for the two middle variants in the four-aircraft 737 lineup—the Max 8 and Max 9—securing the final two certificates became a years-long process, bogged down by heightened FAA scrutiny, technical issues and a more-complex certification process.
First flight of a Boeing 737 Max 10 flight-test aircraft. The airframer is still awaiting certification of the most-stretched variant of the Max family, though it could receive good news soon. Photo credit: Boeing
Years of repeated certification delays have been heavy drags, especially with the Max 10 representing roughly a third of the airframer’s backlog. Indeed, the Max 10—the highest-capacity variant in the Max lineup—is critical for generating revenue and returning Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) to profitability later this decade.
Boeing picked up positive momentum over the summer with a strong-than-expected Farnborough International Airshow and by securing the Max 7’s type certificate shortly afterward. That was a largely symbolic victory, however, as sales of the Max 7 have been modest. Attention turned to the higher revenue-generating Max 10, with CEO Kelly Ortberg hinting the aircraft would be certified “very soon” on September 16.
Progress on certifying the large single-aisle aircraft stalled on final approach, as a previously undisclosed glitch in flight-management software caused the FAA to balk. Several reports emerged that the issue could cause a potentially lengthy certification delay, and that several airlines would refuse to take accept jets equipped with the flight-management software in question. The FAA’s concerns centered on additional pilot workload, in particular.
Earlier this month, the FAA determined that the software issue was not safety-critical, validating FAA critics who viewed the issue as relatively minor. Whether 737 Max customers like Southwest Airlines and United Airlines will be satisfied with software that can, in certain go-around conditions, stop automated flight-path tracking is a separate question.
Though it appears that Boeing’s long-sought Max 10 certification could be attained this week, the saga has shown that further complications are always possible.
Why Aerospace Supply Chains Are More Fragile Than Automotive Production
By Leeham News and Analysis Staff
October 16, 2026
When people hear about aircraft manufacturers struggling with supply chain disruptions—a shortage of a specific fastener, a late fuselage delivery, a supplier quality escape—it can be tempting to assume this is the same kind of problem every manufacturer deals with, just at a bigger scale. A car company deals with chip shortages, an appliance maker deals with steel price spikes, and an aircraft company deals with the same category of headache, just with more expensive parts. But that framing misses something important about why aircraft supply chains are structurally more fragile than the supply chains behind most everyday manufactured goods. It comes down to the difference between unit production and conventional assembly line production.
Understanding the unit production versus assembly-line distinction helps explain this fragility. It’s not that aircraft manufacturers are worse at supply chain management. It’s that the process has almost no slack built in for exactly the kind of disruption that a conventional inventory-building line is designed to mitigate against.
Boeing 787 production in North Charleston, South Carolina. Photo credit: Boeing
At first glance, a lot of factories look basically identical. You see a long line, products moving down it step by step, workers or robots doing their piece at each station, and everything moving at a steady, predictable pace. Whether that factory is building custom aircraft or building toasters, the scene on the floor is almost the same. But underneath that surface similarity, there are two very different ways of organizing production. The difference matters a lot for how a company operates, what risks it takes on, and how it manages its money. These two approaches are called unit production and assembly line (or repetitive) production.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft Structures, Part 23: Wrap-up
By Bjorn Fehrm • Aerospace Analyst
October 16, 2026
After 22 parts and five months, it’s time to summarize what we have covered in our aircraft structures series. We started with aircraft structures that were skeleton-like and then covered with fabric to create a smooth aerodynamic surface (Figure 1).
This was how gliders and motored aircraft were built before and through the First World War and up to just before the Second World War, when the advent of the high-strength Duralumin created a skin that could be reinforced and absorb aerodynamic, engine, and other forces.
Figure 1. The Sopwith Camel structure. Photo credit: Understanding Aircraft Structures by Cutler.
P&W Expects Subtle Changes to Deliver GTF Advantage’s Durability Gains
By Howard Hardee • Editor
October 15, 2026
The first GTF Advantage engines entered service last week on an Airbus A321XLR operated by United Airlines.
For RTX subsidiary Pratt & Whitney, which operates on the timescale of decades-long engine programs, the operational deployment of its next-generation geared turbofan (GTF) was worth celebrating.
“It is really super exciting for us,” Matt Teicholz, P&W’s program chief engineer, commercial engines, recently told Leeham News and Analysis (LNA). “It has been about a decade since our last entry into service. It doesn’t happen very often for us; I don’t know when the next one’s going to be, so it’s a really invigorating moment.”
It is a long-awaited moment for P&W’s airline customers, as well. The GTF Advantage upgrades are expected to roughly double “time on wing compared to today’s GTF engine”—important because durability issues have been severely disruptive for operators.
The first A321XLR configured with GTF Advantage engines, which P&W says are particularly “well-suited” to the long-range single-aisle jet. Photo credit: P&W
P&W says its latest engines will also deliver improved thrust and fuel efficiency compared to previous-generation PW1100Gs, which are one of the engine options powering the global fleet of Airbus A320neo-family aircraft alongside the competing CFM Leap-1A.
Connecticut-based P&W will work through a period of low-rate initial production for six-to-nine months, slowly ramping up to a 2028 production cutover. Barring setbacks, all newly produced GTFs will be Advantage units by then.
Meanwhile, P&W will gather field data on the new engine’s performance and ramp up its supply chain. The Advantage platform will rely heavily on P&W’s production facility in Asheville, North Carolina, which is to produce many of the hot section’s parts and components. While P&W assembled the first units in the U.S., partner MTU Aero Engines recently confirmed that GTF Advantage engines are also being assembled at its facility in Munich.
“Once we’re satisfied, we’ll say we have achieved what we wanted from a readiness standpoint, both in production and product performance,” Teicholz said. “Then, we’ll initiate a cutover period, and in 2028 we should be through that cutover period and producing 100% Advantages.”
At that point, older PW1100Gs will be out of production and P&W will shift to producing the new PW1100G/2s.