Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 24. High Temperature Fuel Cells
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 17, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the installation effects and efficiencies of the fuel cell systems we discussed in earlier parts of the series.
We could see the variants were significantly heavier than the propulsion system they would replace for an ATR72 size aircraft. The discussion assumed classical PEM fuel cells, also called Low Temperature PEM Fuel Cells. Now we look at if High Temperature PEM Fuel Cells can improve the installation situation.
Figure 1. The ATR 72-600 70-seater turboprop. Source: ATR.
FAA adopts ICAO 2027 emissions, noise rules; death knell for new production 767F, 777F
- 787F, NMA-F are natural conclusions to consider for a successor to 767F
By Scott Hamilton
June 16, 2022, © Leeham News: The US Federal Aviation Administration yesterday announced it will adopt the emissions and noise rules proposed in 2017 to reduce emissions and noise in commercial jets and turboprops by 2027. Failure to comply means the offending airplanes can’t be produced from 2028. The rules won’t affect airplanes already produced.
New emissions and noise rules mean production of the Boeing 767-300ERF must end in 2027. Credit: Leeham News.
The FAA’s move means that Boeing’s popular 767-300ERF and 777-200LRF can’t be produced from 2028.
The rules were adopted by the global organization ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization. But countries individually must adopt them. The FAA proposes a new rule to bring the US into compliance. By federal law, the FAA proposed rule must be published in the Federal Register. A comment period follows, after which the FAA either moves forward with the rule as proposed, revises it, or rejects its proposed rule based on the comments.
Boeing already announced a successor to the 777F: the 777-8F, a member of the 777X family. Entry-into-service is slated for mid-2027 before the rules take effect. Boeing doesn’t have a solution for the termination of the 767F production.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 16, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business; to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
The market clearly says both, as this is the state of affairs. Market economy says a business will find its optimal form, and it’s about fifty-fifty now. But what are the plus and minuses of these two very different ways of transporting cargo, and why do we have the present situation?
We search for answers by looking at the transport fundamentals and comparing costs with revenues.
Summary
- About half of the world’s cargo flies in the bellies of passenger aircraft, and the other half flies on dedicated freighters.
- What are the factors that have created this division, and will it change?
Migrating advanced processes from Defense to Commercial isn’t a cakewalk for Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s CEOs, David Calhoun and his predecessors Dennis Muilenburg and Jim McNerney, said repeatedly the next Boeing airplane (NBA) will be as much as about production as it will be about the airplane. In fact, Calhoun says production is key to designing, producing, and delivering a less expensive airplane that will underpin the value proposition going forward.
Engine technology advances might achieve a 10% reduction over today’s CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney Geared TurboFan engines. So, advanced design and production is key to the business case for the NBA.
Despite using these advancements on Boeing defense programs (the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and MQ-25 unmanned aerial refueling airplane), assimilating them into commercial airplane development and production has high hurdles.
Summary
- Boeing has had mixed success using advanced technology design and production on its current commercial programs.
- Regulatory approvals will be challenging.
- Engines will be 10% better than the LEAP and GTF—but are these the correct comparisons?
Pontifications: Some customers anticipate up to year delay in certification of A321XLR
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus scheduled the first flight of its Xtra Long Range A321XLR Wednesday.
Some customers think certification of the airplane will be delayed up to a year as Europe’s EASA and the USA’s Federal Aviation Administration demand changes to the integrated aft fuel tank that gives the XLR an advertised range of 4,700nm.
That was the consensus of those I talked to who gathered last week at an industry event in Chicago. Airbus already said the XLR certification will be delayed by a few months as regulators review how the fuel tank is integrated into the airplane.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 23. Fuel Cell-based 70 seat airliner
June 10, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the different fuel cell systems that can go into a 70-seat airliner like the ATR 72. In this week’s Corners, we implement these in the aircraft and look at installation effects and efficiencies.
The deeper discussion is in the sister article, Part 23P. Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner.
Figure 1. The ATR 72-600 70-seater turboprop. Source: ATR.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 23P. Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. The deeper discussion.
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June 10, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 23, Fuel Cell-based 70-seat airliner. It analyses the masses and efficiencies of a 70-seat airliner equipped with the fuel cell-based propulsion systems we analyzed last week.
How Boeing is Rebuilding Engineering Excellence
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 9, 2022, © Leeham News: As described in our Monday article, Boeing is preparing for its Next Boeing Airplane (NBA). At the same time, the company is hard at work to ensure this will be no repeat of the 787 and 737 MAX program debacles.
The 2022 Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report was issued two weeks ago. It gives insight into the work that shall ensure such failures won’t happen again. Here is what the report says about how Boeing is rebuilding its Engineering Excellence.
Summary
- The 787 and 737 MAX failures came from a company culture where engineering excellence played second fiddle to short-term business objectives.
- Boeing has now made changes from the board level to how it organizes its engineers. These changes go in the right direction, but will they be enough?
Boeing’s steps toward its next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing will launch a new airplane program, vows David Calhoun, CEO of The Boeing Co. Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), said Boeing is going through the “prerequisites” for a new airplane, according to Bloomberg news. Skeptics remain doubtful, noting research and development spending remains at historic lows and definitive action remains out of sight.
Boeing’s next new airplane could be a twin-aisle, similar to the New Midmarket Airplane concept, or a single aisle to complement the 737-10 more along the lines of a 757-200 and 757-300. Photo credit: Leeham News.
“The dilemma for Boeing is whether to wait to see if the new technology pans out, ‘or do we run the propulsion system one more time before we go to that next technology suite?’ Deal said in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Royal Aeronautical Society,” Bloomberg reported in January. Calhoun, in an appearance at Bernstein Research Friday, said engines aren’t advanced enough for a new airplane to counter the Airbus A321neo.
Nevertheless, if one looks carefully, steps moving toward a new airplane program are there. LNA analyzed Boeing’s recent job hiring spree, which includes engineers, technicians, and other positions. Some of these are specifically for new airplane jobs. Boeing last year spent millions of dollars above contract requirements with SPEEA, its professional union, to retain engineers and technicians. Last year, Boeing named a new leader for its Digital Design Team for a new airliner. The Design Team recently studied lessons learned from defense programs for application to BCA.
Airlines impacted by new aircraft delays
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: LNA recently discussed the certification delays on all the current aircraft or variants under development: Airbus A321XLR, Boeing 737-7, 737-10, and 777X. Dreamliner deliveries have also been halted for 18 months now (except for a dozen last year).
Credit: Boeing
Airlines consequently face significant delivery delays on the aircraft they ordered. American Airlines publicly stated the Boeing 787 delivery delays have caused it to operate a smaller international network than envisioned. Air Lease Corp repeatedly noted that every airplane on order from Airbus and Boeing is delayed. It’s now been reported that CFM LEAP engines for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families will be delayed for 4-6 weeks.
As passenger traffic recovers, the delivery delays will hamper airlines’ ability to capitalize on more robust demand. Higher fuel prices also mean that they cannot mitigate the impact by operating as many newer-generation aircraft as envisioned.
LNA analyzes the delivery schedule envisioned by Airbus and Boeing on the above programs that were in place before the delay announcements. The goal is to single out the most affected customers.
Summary
- Deliveries concentrated with one customer on the 737-7 and 737-10;
- A more diverse A321XLR and Dreamliner delivery base;
- Renegotiating 777X delivery timelines.