Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Why the MAX isn’t back – yet
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
April 29, 2021, © Leeham News: Much virtual ink has been spilled in recent weeks over an apparent surge in demand for Boeing’s 737 MAX, as a slow drip-drip-drip of cancellations finally reversed into net new orders.
The Boeing team must be grateful to see a shift toward positive headlines for its single-aisle family. Longtime 737 customers provided badly needed votes of confidence with top-ups to their previous orders.
However, such momentum has been slowed by a continuing wave of cancellations. Boeing logged just 12 net orders in February and 40 in March. More cancellations are due to be announced; Turkish Airlines recently said it would cancel or convert to options 50 of its previous MAX orders, and ch-aviation says a single unidentified customer cancelled another 45 in March. Aeromexico swapped MAX orders for other MAX orders, saving $2bn in the process – a revenue hit for Boeing down the line.
The total backlog, net of orders in doubt under ASC 606, is down from a high of 4,708 to just 3,240 as of this week. This is enough to support average production of just 30 airplanes per month through 2029. Boeing CEO David Calhoun said on yesterday’s earnings call that he remains confident the MAX demand will recover from this point forward.
Summary
- New orders are mostly from large existing MAX customers, and likely include mitigation discounts for delivery delays.
- Boeing has 400 undelivered aircraft in storage, some of which were due for delivery to now-defunct airlines.
- Pricing trends are quite negative, depriving Boeing of badly-needed free cash flow.
(Updated) Airbus 1Q2021, a strong quarter in difficult times
April 29, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus presented its results for the first quarter of 2021 today. It was a reassuring result when other aircraft manufacturers suffer.
The Airbus operations delivered an operational profit of €0.7bn with a net profit of €0.5bn, reflecting good progress in sizing the company for the new reality and a solid performance in operations. Commercial aircraft delivered 125 planes during the quarter against 122 last year. The outlook for 2021 from the 2020 results briefing in February was maintained.
Boeing cites US-China relations as business watch item in 1Q earnings
April 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing’s first quarter financial results were slightly worse than estimates by Wall Street analysis.
“Boeing reported first-quarter revenue of $15.2bn, primarily driven by lower 787 deliveries and commercial services volume, partially offset by higher 737 deliveries and higher KC-46A Tanker revenue,” the company states in its announcement. “GAAP loss per share of ($0.92) and core loss per share (non-GAAP) of ($1.53) reflect year-over-year KC-46A Tanker improvement, higher 737 deliveries, and lower commercial airplanes period costs, partially offset by lower tax benefits and higher interest expense. Boeing recorded operating cash flow of ($3.4)bn.”
Boeing recorded a charge of $318m for the VC-25B (Air Force One) program. Impacts from COVID-19 and a vendor that Boeing sued (and which counter-sued) are cited as reasons.
Productions rates remain unchanged.
The press release is here.
But buried in the slide presentation for the earnings call at 10:30 EDT is a one line reference that US-China relations are a business environment watch item. Credit Suisse notes this is the first time Boeing has so referenced China in earnings calls.
First reactions to the financial reports and China are below.
Etihad’s fleet simplification
By the Leeham News Team
Apr. 27, 2021, © Leeham News: Etihad Airways’ CEO Tony Douglas announced that the carrier would be grounding its A380 fleet indefinitely and retire its 19 777-300ERs by the end of 2021.
The Abu Dhabi carrier has become the latest to terminate A380 operations. Etihad took 10 Superjumbos over 2014-2017, which featured “The Residence” seat. After the aggressive and luxury expansion of the early 2010s, transformation towards increasing efficiency is the order of the day.
The carrier intends to retire its 777-300ER a little more than a year after announcing a sale and leaseback transaction with Altavair and KKR. LNA does not know whether Etihad could terminate the leases early and whether there were penalties associated with the move.
The move will add another 19 777-300ERs on the market looking for a new home. There are currently large numbers of 777-300ERs coming off lease.
Pontifications: Balance shareholder value with product development and strategy
April 26, 2021 © Leeham News: Balance shareholder value with the long-term strategy of The Boeing Co.
By Scott Hamilton
This is what Boeing needs to do. But there were conflicting signals from the 2020 annual shareholders meeting held April 20 via virtual webcast and dial-in participation.
“We want to get back to a dividend policy. I can’t give you a date and we need a return in our commercial aviation department to support that.” So said David Calhoun, CEO.
Yet Calhoun was circumspect about a new airplane program.
When asked about developing a new airplane, Calhoun said—as he has before—that Boeing’s current research and development focus is on refining engineering modeling and production methods. These will be the “real differentiators” for the next new airplane.
“Calhoun vowed to return Boeing to its engineering roots,” reported Bloomberg News.
“There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but the journey is just beginning.”
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
April 26, 2021, © Leeham News: Aerospace suppliers generally had worse delivery and quality control performance in 2020 than in 2019. By next year, executives think timeliness and quality will return to 95% of pre-pandemic levels.
Eighty-three percent of executives surveyed see delivery rates for narrowbody aircraft improving this year and next.
Forty-nine percent of executives surveyed see airline industry revenues returning to 2019 levels in 24-36 months.
And eco-aviation and sustainability drives will be an increasingly important topic over the next three years.
These are just some of the findings in the annual survey of aerospace and airline executives conducted by the international consulting firm Accenture.
Summary
- “There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but the journey is just beginning.”
- 6-18 month outlook. 2019 survey skipped as the pandemic spread.
- The shift in sustainability-driven is by today’s younger generation.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 34. Series wrap-up
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 23, 2021, ©. Leeham News: I said last week we spend this final Corner on hydrogen-fueled air transport, describing projects outside the big ones, like Airbus.
But more important events took place in the week with implications for sustainable air transport. We wrap up by describing these and speculate where these take us.
“The thin blue layer that enables life on our rock planet.” Source: President Biden’s introduction to the climate summit.
Unsustainable – and growing – airline debt load weighs on OEMs, suppliers
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
April 22, 2021, © Leeham News: COVID-19 has forced every layer of the commercial aviation supply chain, apart from cargo airlines, to streamline their businesses and raise cash to survive. Nowhere has this been more true than for passenger airlines, the end-customers for most aviation products.
Before the pandemic, passenger carriers were taking advantage of cheap capital to invest in both new and used aircraft. However, most have stretched their balance sheets beyond imagination by pledging every unencumbered asset – even frequent flyer programs – to raise additional debt.
International Air Transport Association (IATA) economist Brian Pearce said in a February webinar that governments provided $101bn of repayable loans and tax deferrals in 2020 alone. Another $125bn was raised from banks, capital markets, and lessors. More will be required this year.
Governments and markets backstopping the world’s airlines, aided by central bank money printing, are why fewer than 50 have ceased operations since the start of the pandemic. This is not materially worse than a typical year, but it doesn’t begin to reflect the scale of the ongoing financial shock to airlines.
Summary
- Airline demand recovery is prolonged in most regions; new tax and cost pressures loom.
- Debt loads will continue to grow this year; interest expense is mounting.
- High leverage may depress airline capital expenditures through 2030.
- Governments may finally ground loss-making state carriers, adding to used aircraft inventory.
- Aircraft production cuts are already impacting the supply chain.
10 Minutes About: Boeing, Calhoun’s extension and Smith’s retirement
April 21, 2021, (c) Leeham News: Boeing announceed April 20 that the Board extended CEO David Calhoun’s mandatory retirement age from 65 to 70. Calhoun was 64 on April 18 and had one year to accomplish everything that needs to be done. 
Now, with six years, he can finish structuring Boeing and presumably launch a new airplane program.
Also announced on April 20 is that Greg Smith, the chief financial officer and EVP of strategy and other things, will retire July 9. Smith was named CFO in 2011. Some thought he might be in line to become CEO once Calhoun stepped down at age 65.
Richard Aboulafia of The Teal Group is LNA’s guest on this episode of 10 Minutes About to discuss these developments.
Boeing AGM routine, action came an hour before
April 20, 2021, © Leeham News: Despite some media suggestions that the Boeing Annual Shareholders’ Meeting would be a “showdown,” the event proved as LNA predicted: More of the same.
All 10 company nominees to the Board of Directors were elected or reelected. They were unopposed, so there was no room for a showdown on this score.
Dissident shareholder resolutions were voted down. Company resolutions were approved.
The only surprise came an hour before the meeting, when Boeing announced that Greg Smith, the CFO since 2011, will retire July 9. This wasn’t expected.
In the same announcement, the Board waived the mandatory retirement age of 65 for CEO David Calhoun. He turned 64 Sunday. The Board gave Calhoun until age 70 before he’d have to retire. There’s nothing to say he couldn’t before then. But this gives Calhoun more time to right the ship and set Boeing on a new path for the future. Calhoun’s one year Countdown now has up to six years.
Below are some initial reactions from Wall Street aerospace analysts about the two moves.