Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
The fuel effect; or old is beautiful
By Bjorn Fehrm
19 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: When Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, said that the Airbus A340-600 “is a fantastic aircraft at fuel below $60 a barrel but perhaps not at $120,” he put operational words to something the Growth Frontiers 2016 conference in Dublin had been grappling with since it opened on Monday morning.
What is going to happen now? Crude is falling below $30 a barrel and Jet fuel is below $1 a gallon. This must have an effect on how people decide, whatever the lessors and aircraft OEMs say.
And it had to be a senior airline CEO that broke the mantra that everyone was repeating: “We don’t see fuel prices having any effect on fleet planning for airlines.”
Boeing stock sell-off on 777-200ER deal over-blown
- Stock sell off on Boeing 777-200ER purchase price overblown.
- Wells Fargo stock downgrade the next day spurs larger sell-off.
- Credit Suisse takes a deep dive into Boeing cash flow.
- Accelerating PDPs, purchase payments continues to support cash flow.
- HOLIDAY SCHEDULE: Unless there is major, breaking news, Leeham News and Comment is taking the Christmas-New Year’s holidays off. We resume our normal publishing scheduled Jan. 4, 2016.
Dec. 22, 2105, © Leeham Co.: The sell-off in Boeing stock last week tied to the Delta Air Lines purchase (Letter of Intent) of a 777-200ER for $7.7m was overblown.
The stock was off 2.6% Thursday after Delta CEO Richard Anderson Tweeted an LOI had just been signed to buy a 777-200ER. This sell-off, and an earlier one when Anderson said the -200ER could be acquired for $10m, prompted hand-wringing over 777 values and the potential impact on new 777 Classic sales needed to build the bridge to the production of the 777X.
Embraer sees broadening market in North America
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Introduction
Nov. 17, 2015, © Leeham Co. The chief commercial officer of Embraer sees US mainline carriers adding
John Slattery, Chief Commercial Officer, Embraer. Photo via Google images.
aircraft in the 100-plus seat sector that will open new opportunities for the largest E-Jets hitherto a limited interest in this region.
First among high profile possibilities: United Airlines, which was identified as a major prospect for Bombardier and its CS100. According to multiple news reports, UA is holding out an order for the CS100 as an inducement for some pilot contract revisions. According to Market Intelligence, the potential order is for an equal number of orders and options, well below 50 orders but one which would be a crucial win for struggling Bombardier.
But Embraer isn’t going to let this order go without a stiff fight. Through United Express partners, EMB has a large installed base of E-175s operating for United. This is viewed as a major advantage by EMB’s CCO, John Slattery.
Summary
- United, JetBlue, Air Canada targets for CSeries sales.
- Embraer has large, installed fleet of E-Jets at these airlines.
- Broadened market potential seen with North American carriers for 100-plus seat airplanes.
Qantas robbed of longest flight by Emirates and then Singapore airlines
By Bjorn Fehrm
Oct. 14 2015, ©. Leeham Co: The planned “Flight 21” of Singapore Airlines between Singapore and New York would rob Qantas Airways of the title of flying the longest direct flight in the world come 2018.
Qantas operates today’s longest flight, the one between Sydney (SYD) and Dallas- Ft. Worth (TX) (DFW), using its Airbus A380. Emirates plans to take that crown next year with a Dubai (DXB) to Panama City (PTY) flight, Figure 1. It’s fractionally longer than the Qantas flight when comparing great circle distances (the 2015 and 2016 label).
Qantas CEO Allen Joyce just announced that the airline plans to take that title back when the Boeing 787-9 arrives in 2017. This aircraft enables direct service to London Heathrow (LHR) with flights from Perth (PER) in Western Australia, a flight of 7830nm or 18 hours, labeled 2017 in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Worlds longest flights 2015 to 2018. Source: Great Circle Mapper.
Airbus’ and Boeing’s Payload/Range for Dual Aisle.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
Aug. 17 2015, ©. Leeham Co: In our series over Boeing’s changes to its configuration rule sets, we will now continue with the dual aisle aircraft. Here the differences between Airbus and Boeing are larger. Boeing used to be specifying a three class cabin and Airbus two class. Now Boeing has changed to two class and Airbus is just changing to three class.
There is a bit of difference in the Airbus change to three class and the three class that Boeing had until now. Airbus changes from modern two class to a modern three class with Business, Premium Economy and Economy. Boeing’s change was from an outdated three class with old style First, Business and Economy to a modern two class with lie flat business section.
The new Boeing two class and historical Airbus two class are close in configuration. These end up within a seat or two of each other and also within our normalized two class cabins. As these cabin rules are similar, we use our normalized cabin data to compare the payload range of the aircraft when all apply the new, tougher passenger+bags weight rules and an equalized reserves policy.
Summary:
- Airbus’ two class rules and Boeing’s new two class Standard rules are close in their configurations.
- They are also close to our Normalized rule set. We use our normalized rule set to level the playing field on the cabin side.
- We can then apply the new tougher passenger and bags rules that Boeing’s Standard rule set prescribes for the twin aisle aircraft and see how they compare.
- We also use the same reserves policy for the comparison. Read more
Pontifications: ExIm reform
By Scott Hamilton
July 6, 2015, © Leeham Co. The US ExIm Bank authorization expired last week. As readers know, I’m a strong advocate of renewal of the authorization. Boeing, and other companies, hope reauthorization can be achieved this month.
I won’t restate the reasons I think ExIm should be reauthorized, nor my utter disdain for the right-wing Republicans and Tea Party types who don’t get that the Bank helps Boeing sell airplanes and sustain or create jobs. I’ve written about this many times, and the competitive disadvantage Boeing will have vs Airbus, whose European Credit Agencies will take full advantage of this.
But there are some points on the “other side” to revisit.
Pontifications: Passenger experience and the WOW factor
By Scott Hamilton
June 29, 2015, © Leeham Co. Back on June 1, I wrote in this column I had yet to experience traveling on the Airbus A380, which entered service in 2007. The A380 doesn’t serve Seattle, where I live, and I really didn’t have a desire to add hours and a connection to my travels just to fly the A380 if I could go non-stop. Note that this is precisely the argument advanced by Boeing, but this is a coincidence. I have yet to fly on the Boeing 787, either, and it does fly into Seattle from Asia.
A reader Tweeted to me his incredulity that in all these years I hadn’t flown the A380. I replied, All in good time. I knew when I wrote that I would be returning from the Paris Air Show on an A380 via Los Angeles. The time had come for me to experience the airplane. (Interestingly, Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times, unbeknownst to either of us, wrote he’s doing the same thing via New York on Air France. I would be flying Air France. Friends warned me that the passenger experience on Air France, however, was hardly what the A380 is all about.
They weren’t kidding.
I had been on the test A380 during static displays before, but never in a passenger-configured model. At the PAS, Qatar Airways had its own little air show, displaying more airliners than any OEM: the A319, A320, A350 and A380 plus the 787. The A350 and A380 were open to the press. As with anyone in the industry, I had long-heard of how the Middle Eastern airlines went over the top on outfitting their cabins, but I wasn’t remotely prepared for the Qatar A380. Walking on board, into the first class section, was a jaw-dropping “wow” moment.
Pontifications: National policy, national security
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The battle between the the Big Three US carriers, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, vs the Big Three Middle Eastern carriers, Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways, was a big over-hang at the 71st International Air Transportation Assn. Annual General Assembly last week.
The US3 charge that the ME3 have received around $42bn in subsidies and claim continued government support put them at a disadvantage. Loads of information has been reported, with claims and counter-claims going back and forth. But the IATA conference attendees, including members of the media, were looking for sparks to fly between Doug Parker, CEO of American Airlines, who was on a couple of panels and who was voted president of IATA for the next year, Tim Clark, president of Emirates and Akbar Al-Baker, CEO of Qatar.
IATA: Lufthansa welcomes US carriers to Mid-East dispute
Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group
June 7, 2015: The chief executive officer of Lutfhansa Airlines said he welcomes the Big Three US airliners to the dispute over whether the Big Three Middle Eastern carriers are unfairly competing against legacy airlines.
Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group, told a press conference on the opening day of the IATA Annual General Meeting that LH has long been complaining about Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways and their aggressive expansion, first in Europe and now the US.
American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are challenging open skies and subsidies to the ME3.