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Introduction
Delivery of the first Bombardier CS300, to AirBaltic, next week kicks off entry-into-service for 17 airplanes through 2020. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The past decade was a hive of activity as the Big Four OEMs launched new airplane programs and put the aircraft into service.
Airbus launched the A320neo, A330neo and A350 families. The A330neo is under production; the other two entered service early this year.
Boeing launched the 787 in late 2003 (outside the decade mark), rolled it out in 2007 and entered service with it in 2013. The 737 MAX was launched in 2011 and is in flight testing. The 777X was launched in 2013; components are in production.
Bombardier launched the CSeries in 2008; it entered service this year, after three years of delays.
Embraer launched the E-Jet E2 om 2013. Flight testing began this year.
New Entrants
These were supplemented by new entrants into commercial aviation: COMAC with its C919; Irkut with the MC-21; and Mitsubishi with the MRJ90. Of these, only the MRJ90 is flying. After more than two years of delays and several false starts, flight testing began in earnest this week at Moses Lake (WA) with FTA-1 (Flight Test Aircraft 1).
Development and new program launches have slowed, but the next decade is hardly going to be idle.
Summary
- Seventeen new aircraft or derivatives are scheduled to enter service through 2020.
- Five potential derivatives might see EIS through the same period.
- Three to five new or potential derivative aircraft might see EIS 2021-2025.
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2017: the year ahead
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Introduction
Jan. 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The New Year is here and it doesn’t look like a good one for commercial aerospace, if measured against previous outstanding years.
There are some troubling signs ahead, piling on to a slowdown in orders from last year that didn’t even reach a 1:1 book:bill.
This year looks to be worse than last. Airbus and Boeing will give their 2017 guidance on the earnings calls this month and next. Bombardier and Embraer earnings calls are a ways off, when each will provide its guidance.
But LNC believes the Big Two in particular will be hard pressed to hit a 1:1 book:bill this year and may even struggle to match 2016 sales.
Boeing’s year-end order tally comes Thursday. Airbus’ comes on Jan. 11.
Summary
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Posted on January 3, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, E-Jet, Embraer, Etihad Airways, Farnborough Air Show, GE Aviation, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Middle of the Market, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, GE Aviation, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
US, EU ignore Chinese, Russian subsidies
Nov. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Government subsidies to commercial aircraft companies appear to be increasing despite the 12-year disputes before the World Trade Organization between Europe and the US over Airbus and Boeing aid.
Yet the US and Europeans appear to be doing little to try and curb the subsidies to new competitors.
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15 Comments
Posted on November 15, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Irkut, Lessors, Sukhoi, United Aircraft
737, 787-9, A319, A320, A330neo, A350, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, C919, C929, China, Comac, CS300, CS500, CSeries, Embraer, MC-21, Russia, United Aircraft Corp.
Less desirable aircraft for lessors
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Introduction
Part 3: Oct. 24, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Lessors select aircraft to add to their portfolios based on several basic criteria:
Lessors often conclude that while an airplane may be good technically and perfectly acceptable for airline use, failure to meet their specialized key criteria—notably liquidity and customer base—they may pass on the aircraft.
Summary
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Posted on October 24, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, E-Jet, Embraer, Irkut, Lessors, Mitsubishi, Premium, Sukhoi
AerCap, Airbus, Altavair, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, GECAS, Guggenheim Aviation Partners, ILFC, Intrepid Aviation, Irkut, Lessors, Mitsubishi, Sukhoi
Seventeen new, derivative aircraft to see EIS through 2020
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Introduction
Delivery of the first Bombardier CS300, to AirBaltic, next week kicks off entry-into-service for 17 airplanes through 2020. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The past decade was a hive of activity as the Big Four OEMs launched new airplane programs and put the aircraft into service.
Airbus launched the A320neo, A330neo and A350 families. The A330neo is under production; the other two entered service early this year.
Boeing launched the 787 in late 2003 (outside the decade mark), rolled it out in 2007 and entered service with it in 2013. The 737 MAX was launched in 2011 and is in flight testing. The 777X was launched in 2013; components are in production.
Bombardier launched the CSeries in 2008; it entered service this year, after three years of delays.
Embraer launched the E-Jet E2 om 2013. Flight testing began this year.
New Entrants
These were supplemented by new entrants into commercial aviation: COMAC with its C919; Irkut with the MC-21; and Mitsubishi with the MRJ90. Of these, only the MRJ90 is flying. After more than two years of delays and several false starts, flight testing began in earnest this week at Moses Lake (WA) with FTA-1 (Flight Test Aircraft 1).
Development and new program launches have slowed, but the next decade is hardly going to be idle.
Summary
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Posted on October 20, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, E-Jet, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Sukhoi
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Sukhoi
Airline assets and lessor assets: Bombardier and Embraer
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Part 2. Part 1 may be found here.
Introduction
Bombardier invented the regional jet. Despite some sales these days, the CRJ was eclipsed by the Embraer J-Jet. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Regional aircraft are much riskier assets for lessors than mainline aircraft.
Until recently, Bombardier and Embraer were the only two regional jet Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).
Today, the Sukhoi SSJ100 and the Mitsubishi MRJ90 join BBD and EMB in this arena.
Summary
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Posted on October 10, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airlines, American Airlines, Bombardier, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Sukhoi, United Airlines, US Airways
American Airlines, Bombardier, C-110, C-130, Continental Airlines, CRJ, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, E-Jet, Embraer, ERJ, GTF, Mitsubishi, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney, SSJ100, Sukhoi, United Airlines, US Airways
Bjorn’s Corner: The Chinese aircraft engine industry
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 07, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we will now look at the Chinese civil aircraft engine industry.
The Chinese engine industry is closely modeled after the Chinese aircraft industry that we looked at last week. It is organized as divisions and later subsidiaries to the major aircraft companies. Contrary to the Chinese aircraft industry, it has had major problems in gaining the necessary know-how to start developing and producing its own designs.
The industry has built Soviet designs on license since the 1950s and only recently managed to present functional own designs, after many failures.
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10 Comments
Posted on October 7, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, CFM, China, Comac, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
ARJ21, C919, China, Klimov, Saturn, WS-10, WS-20
Bjorn’s Corner; The Russian civil aircraft engine companies
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 23, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we now look at the main Russian civil aircraft engine companies. As with the aircraft side, there is one overall Russian engine company since 2008, United Engine Corporation (UEC), Figure 1.
This is a state-owned holding which incorporates 80%of the gas turbine engine companies from the Soviet times, employing 80,000 people.
The aim is to coordinate and optimize Russia’s engineering and production resources around present and future gas turbine engines for Aeronautical, Naval and Stationary use.
Figure 1. Engine companies in United Engine Corporation. Source: UEC.
Soviet and Russian engines have historically been named after their chief designer in the design bureau. We will now describe the main entities in UEC that work with airliner engines. Read more
26 Comments
Posted on September 23, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Antonov, Bjorn's Corner, Irkut, Sukhoi, United Aircraft, United Engine Corp., YAK
Aviadvigatel, Irkut, MC-21, PD-14, SaM146, Saturn, SSJ100, Sukhoi, UAC, UEC, YAK
Bjorn’s Corner; The Russian civil aircraft companies
This is a state-owned holding which incorporates 30 of the main companies from the Soviet times, employing 100,000 people. The aim is to coordinate and optimize Russia’s project and production resources around the present aircraft and the future projects that Russia can afford to drive.
Figure 1. Map of UAC Companies in Russia outside of Moscow region. Red markers are MRO. Source: UAC.
UAC consolidates several company groups that were formed after the fall of the Soviet Union 1990 and up to the formation of UAC in February 2006.
We will now dissect the main UAC groups and companies that are involved in civil aircraft development and production. Read more
16 Comments
Posted on September 16, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, Sukhoi, United Aircraft, YAK
Bjorn’s Corner: East bloc aeronautical industries
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 09, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The Western world civil aeronautical industry developed a number of new aircraft (Boeing 787, Airbus A350, Bombardier CSeries, Mitsubishi’s MRJ) or aircraft variants (A320neo, 737 MAX, A330neo, Embraer’s E-Jet E2) during the last 15 years. The last of these projects (A330neo) is entering flight tests within six months.
Figure 1. The MC-21 project is reviving the Russian aeronautical industry. Source: UAC.
Over the next 10 years there will be few new Western hemisphere aircraft projects. But there will be action in the east, in Russia and China. We therefore will cover these projects in more and more articles.
To give a background to these articles, I will spend some Corners to describe some of the differences between the Western and Eastern aeronautical industry. A lot of these differences will come from the industry’s history. We will start with Russia’s airframe industry. Read more
17 Comments
Posted on September 9, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, Irkut, Sukhoi, United Aircraft, United Engine Corp., YAK
Antonov, Ilyushin, MC-21, SSJ100, Tupolev, UAC, UAE, Yak-242, Yakolev
Russian-Chinese wide-body; The aircraft Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 08, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the possibilities of reusing parts of the Il-96 fuselage for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s now time to look at the existing IL-96 wing and how far this is from a modern design.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The intent is not to propose that the existing wing is reused but rather to check the technology level against western designs and how big a leap it will be for the partners to make a modern high performance wing for the aircraft.
Summary:
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Posted on September 8, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, China, Comac, GE Aviation, Irkut, Premium, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi, United Aircraft, United Engine Corp., YAK
787-9, A340-300, Airbus, Boeing, IL-96, MC-21, SSJ100
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