Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Regional Aircraft production
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, LNA looked at Airbus and Boeing’s planned twin-aisle production rates. We now turn our attention to production rates in the regional aircraft market.
The production of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industry-owned CRJ ceased earlier this year, while De Havilland of Canada’s Q400 will also end soon. Few expect production on the latter program to restart.
KLM E-Jet
MHI also halted the development of its MRJ/SpaceJet, with a program restart unlikely at this point. These exits mean that ATR and Embraer will be the only major regional OEMs outside China and Russia.
ATR announced plans to raise its combined ATR42 and ATR72 production to 50 aircraft annually. LNA will investigate whether the turboprop’s order book justifies such an increase.
LNA will separately analyze the Embraer E175 and E-Jet E2 production. Since the E-Jet E2 Embraer program competes with Airbus’ A220, we will also look at production plans on the latter.
Summary
- An optimistic ATR production plan;
- Comparing E175 and E Jet-E2 production;
- Steady A220 production plans;
- Orders at risk;
- Other OEMs.
Outlook 2021: Turboprops challenged
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By Judson Rollins & Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan. 11, 2021, © Leeham News: COVID-19 may ultimately prove to be a net positive for turboprop manufacturers. Near-term orders will be pinched just as for jets, but a long-term loss of business travel and the resulting impact to airline yields will make turboprops’ superior unit costs appealing for shorter missions.
Turboprop engines create their thrust with a very high bypass ratio. The result is 30% better fuel economy than a jet. But it also means 30% lower speed. This limits turboprops to stage lengths to about half that of jets.
The market-dominating ATR and De Havilland Canada (DHC) turboprops use this base efficiency to compete against newer regional jets despite having designs which are 20 years older.
ATR-72-600 Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- Turboprops have attractive economics, making them a larger part of the market post-COVID.
- ATR-72, DHC-8-400 turboprops are old designs.
- The only new turboprops come from Russia (Ilyushin I-114) and China (Xian MA700), limiting their market reach.
- Embraer is keen to enter the market with a new clean-sheet design.
- Continued dominance by ATR, DHC depends on whether Embraer goes ahead.
Pontifications: Assessing the impact of COVID-19: today’s take
By Scott Hamilton
April 6, 2020, © Leeham News: It’s going to be quite a while before there is a clear understanding how coronavirus will change commercial aviation.
LNA already touched on impacts to Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. None of it is good. For Boeing, burdened with the additional stress of the 737 MAX, is in the worst position. Even when the MAX is recertified, there won’t be many—or any—customers in a position to take delivery of the airplane.
Bearing in mind that what’s true today will change in a day, or even an hour, let’s take a rundown of where things seem to stand now.
Embraer presents 3Q2019 results.
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 12, 2019, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer announced its 3Q2019 results today. The company delivered a report which disappointed analysts regarding revenue, earnings and free cash flow. Commercial deliveries were 17 jets (15 in 2Q2018) but only two of these were of the E2 generation. Total E2 deliveries now stand at eight jets after 18 months of deliveries, a very low figure.
The Joint Venture with Boeing is now delayed as the European Union says it sees a risk for diminished competition in the Airliner market. Embraer will close the carve-out of the Commercial Aircraft division and its services at the end of the year while waiting for final approvals.
Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus A220-300 under 150 seats? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 10, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We have over the last weeks analyzed what aircraft to choose for the segment 120 to 150 seats, comparing Embraer’s E195-E2 with Airbus A220-300.
After looking at fundamental data, drag data and fuel consumption and other costs for the aircraft, it’s now time to summarize the series by looking at what route networks the aircraft are suitable for.
Summary:
- The E195-E2 and A220-300 address the segment market segment under 150 seats.
- They have similarities but also differences.
- These differences have made an early adopter operate both types over different types of networks.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 7.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws which are implemented with classical flight controls compared with the Embraer E-Jet and Airbus A320 FBW systems last week.
Now we describe alternative FBW approaches, analyzing Boeing’s 777/787 system and Airbus’ A220 system.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 777 and 787 FBW system architecture. Source: Boeing.
2018 deliveries: Airbus leads Single Aisle, Boeing Widebody and Freighters
By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 10, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing and Airbus came within six aircraft in their 2018 deliveries, 806 versus 800. For orders, Boeing was the leader, with 893 net orders versus Airbus 747.
Looking at Orders and Deliveries for the different segments there are some interesting trends.
Airbus new Hamburg FAL (Final Assembly Line) for the A320. Source: Airbus.
Bombardier “deliberately misleading” in price dumping case, says Boeing
Delta Air Lines CS100. Source: Delta.
May 29, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing minced no words in its closing brief to the US International Trade Commission in its price dumping complaint against Bombardier.
“Bombardier’s intentional obfuscation simply proves that Bombardier has no credible answer to [the] allegations,” Boeing’s lawyers wrote in the second sentence.
Flying the CSeries
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 09, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: After my preparations at Bombardier (BBD) in Montreal, it was time to take an early flight to BBD’s test center in Wichita (KS) the next day. We spent the afternoon in briefings and went flying Wednesday.
Figure 1. FTV8 (CS300) and FTV2 (CS100) at BBD test center. Source: Leeham Co.
The trip to Wichita was with American Airlines regional carrier American Eagle on a BBD CRJ200. Within two days, I would experience the first and smallest regional jet, the CRJ200 (albeit in coach) and Bombardier’s latest and largest jet, CS300, which encroaches on the turf of the single aisles as a direct competitor to the Airbus A319 and Boeing 737-700/7.
At the test center, just off the runway to Wichita International, I would be joined by Mike Gerzanics, who was test flying for FlightGlobal. We last met when we test flew the Airbus A350 in Toulouse in Spring 2015. Read more
CSeries out of London City Airport
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Introduction
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 07, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: When we visited Bombardier (BBD) in Montreal recently, we learned new information about how the CSeries would operate from London City Airport. This unique airport served 4.3m passengers last year and have expansion plans for more passengers up to 2030.
Bombardier’s first CSeries operator, SWISS Airlines, configured all its CS100 aircraft to operate from London City. This requires special engine selections and certification of aircraft and crews. The certification of the aircraft, CS100 is ongoing and will be finished at the turn of the year.
Figure 1. London City Airport, housed in the docklands of London’s east end. Source: Wikipedia.
We take a look at what is required for London City and how far the CS100, appropriately configured, can serve destinations from this special airport. We will use a combination of Bombardier data and our own performance model to reach the conclusions.
Summary
- London City Airport put special requirements on the aircraft serving it.
- The CSeries will be one of the most potent types allowed at London City.
- We use BBD data and our performance model to understand at what range destinations can be served.