Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
India’s airlines order huge numbers of airplanes
April 5, 2018, © Leeham News: India is one of the fastest-growing aviation markets in the world, with airlines there ordering a massive number of airplanes for their size.
- Jet Airways announced a firm order for 75 Boeing 737 MAXes after this article was written.
Airbus and Boeing are selling hundreds of airplanes to India’s fast-growing airlines.
The most prominent airlines have nearly 1,000 airplanes on order. The leading, and most profitable, low-cost carrier, Indigo, is now considering ordering up to 50 twin-aisle aircraft for its first foray into long-haul, LCC service, in competition with the perennial loser, Air India.
It’s also one of the most challenging aviation environments. The government has policies that make it difficult for carriers to operate efficiently.
There have been a number of airline start-ups that make competition fierce. There have been a lot of airline failures.
Embraer gears up for E2 delivery; a look at the 100-150 seat sector demand
March 31, 2018 © Leeham News: The first Embraer E2 jet will be delivered April 4, to Norway’s Wideroe Airlines.
The E190-E2 seats 114 passengers in one-class, 29-inch pitch and 106 at 31-inch pitch, putting it at the low end of the 100-150 seat sector that is often maligned as a Bermuda Triangle for airplanes of this size.
Wideroe of Norway takes delivery of the firzst Embraer 190-E2 April 4. Photo: Embraer
The E190-E2 competes with the Bombardier CS100, a 110-seat airplane in one-class. Neither Airbus nor Boeing have a competing product. Each offers a larger airplane in the 125-150 sector, the A319neo and 737-7 MAX respectively. Embraer and Bombardier offer the E195-E2 and CS300 in this sub-sector.
NMA focus needs to be on engines
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Introduction
March 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As the market awaits a decision by Boeing whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), focus has been on the aircraft’s definition and market demand.
It should be on the engines.
It doesn’t matter whether Boeing designs a fabulous airplane that’s the next best thing to sliced bread. What matters is whether the engines will be ready in time for Boeing’s suggested entry-into-service and if they are, whether they will be reliable out of the box.
The recent track record isn’t all that encouraging. Neither is Boeing’s preferred timing.
Summary
- CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce each had problems with their new engines. All continue.
- The Boeing NMA requires brand new engines, not derivatives.
- Engine development and certification within the Boeing preferred timeline is sporty at best.
Embraer thinks a business case can be made for turboprop, but nothing soon
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Introduction
March 12, 2018 © Leeham Co.: Embraer isn’t planning any new airplane any time soon, but studies about a turboprop and an electric airplane are underway.
One concept of the Embraer turboprop under study.
The current focus is on introducing the Ejet-E2 into service, however. The E190-E2 goes into service next month. The E195-E2 follows next year and the E175-E2 in 2021.
Studies about the electric plane, with 50 passengers or less, perhaps are more esoteric than pending reality. Airbus and Boeing also are studying this concept.
The prospect of a turboprop may be more rooted in reality, however.
Summary
- Current turboprop designs are aging.
- Bombardier’s exit from the turboprop market is considered likely.
- Tough business case seen working with Bombardier exit.
- The ATR is too small for some airlines.
Hawaiian orders 787, cancels A330-800; Embraer ponder electric plane, not a jet
March 6, 23018 © Leeham Co.: It’s official: Boeing and Hawaiian Airlines announced an order for 10+10 787-9s. It’s a letter of intent and purchase rights.
The airline also confirmed it canceled an order for six Airbus A330-800s.
LNC was the first to report the transactions Feb. 20.
Separately, Embraer confirmed it’s looking at an airplane smaller than the E175, but denied a report originating in another media that it’s a small jet.
Embraer ponders new, smaller jet
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Introduction
March 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: News emerged last week that Embraer is considering a new jet family smaller than its current E2 line.
This would replace the E170, which Embraer decided not to upgrade to the E2. The E170 hasn’t sold well
in recent years, as the E175 became the preferred airplane in Embraer’s sub-90 seat market.
Embraer recognizes it needs a second family of airplanes to complement the E2. It’s been considering reentering the turboprop market, but demand is limited.
Restarting a sub-76-seat jet is not without risk, however.
Summary
- Turboprop market is small over 20 years.
- 60-99 seat market is a bit larger, but with competitors.
- Business cases for each are challenging.
Professionals see two types for Middle of the Market sector
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Introduction
March 1, 2018, © Leeham Co. Three industry professionals raised the question whether the Middle of the Market sector requires one aircraft type or two.
One raised the prospect Boeing might have to undertake concurrent aircraft development, as it did with the 757 and 767.
Richard Aboulafia, a consultant with The Teal Group, Ron Epstein, aerospace analyst for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamic Advisory, made their remarks at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance last month in Lynnwood (WA).
Summary
- Low-cost Embraer engineers may play a role in Boeing’s development of the NMA.
- One consultant sees two distinct NMA aircraft.
- Boeing’s vertical integration of the supply chain may make sense only with two concurrent of consecutive airplane programs.
Pontifications: OEMs hike list prices
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 26, 2018, © Leeham Co.: I’m tardy in getting around to this topic, which I do annually, because of an unusually heavy travel schedule this year.
The airframe manufacturers in January adjusted their list prices for airplanes. The prices generally went up 2%-4%, but turboprop maker ATR didn’t adjust this year.
The SADC 2018 conference includes speakers from Airbus, Bombardier, Oliver Wyman, NASA, four states in the Southeast and more. Click here for information and to register.
Boeing displaces Airbus at Hawaiian, wins 787-9 deal; airline cancels A330-800 order
Feb. 20, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has displaced Airbus at Hawaiian Airlines, winning an order for 787-9s. Hawaiian canceled an order for six A330-800s, the only order on the books for this sub-type.
An announcement could come as early as this week.
The campaign has been underway for months and the outcome was expected. Airbus offered to cut the price on the -800 and also offered the A350-900. The latter always was considered too big by carrier executives.
Boeing’s effort to displace Airbus A330neo at Hawaiian is part of an all-out, hand-to-hand combat campaign by Boeing to kill the A330neo program in advance of the potential launch of the Boeing 797.
LNC detailed the battle here.
Pontifications: Transformation is key to increasing production rates
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The likely prospect that Airbus and Boeing will increase single-aisle production rates next decade is outlined in our paywall article today.
The whys and capabilities to do so are outlined in the paywall post. The how is what I’ve been writing about since the first of the year, when LNC looked ahead to its 2018 forecast.
The “how” is the transformation in production that is underway in aerospace.