Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up
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Introduction
June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.
There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).
Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.
Summary
- Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
- No NMA program launch.
- Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
- Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
- Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
- Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
- Embraer looks for order boost.
Pontifications: Why Embraer downplayed range of EJet
By Scott Hamilton
June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: Bjorn Fehrm on Thursday wrote (behind the paywall) that Embraer seems to be selling the E190-E2 short when it comes to range.
Embraer’s published range is 2,850nm. But Bjorn discovered that the range is truly 3,250nm, fully 14% more than the advertised range.
I laughed out loud when Bjorn told me of this discrepancy.
Why would Embraer short-change the E190-E2’s range?
The answer was obvious to me.
Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The new Embraer E190-E2 entered service with its launch operator, Norwegian Wideroe, in April. We looked at the aircraft in two December articles. At the time, we focused on the improvements in fuel consumption and maintenance costs compared with the original E190.
Recently, we used our performance model to understand the maximum range of the aircraft. We were surprised when the flight with ease sailed past Embraer’s published maximum range figures.
Summary:
- Embraer gives the maximum range of the E190-E2 as 2,850nm.
- It uses “Single class seating” to reach this range, an unusual way to specify the maximum range. Normally one uses a two-class or three-class cabin.
- When using standard methods, we calculate a range well over Embraer’s information. Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
Airbus-C Series deal closes July 1; presents challenges for Boeing, Embraer
June 8, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus assumes its 50.01% majority stake in the Bombardier C Series program July 1, the two companies announced today.
The company is called C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.
The CS100 and CS300 may be renamed the A210 and A230, according to a previous press report.
A C Series Final Assembly Line will be constructed in Mobile (AL), next to the Airbus A320 FAL, to serve the US market.
Airbus and Bombardier will speak at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence conference June 25-27 in Mobile (AL). The C Series final assembly line will be an extension of the A320 FAL.
Countdown to Airbus-CSeries deal: boost needed to backlog
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Introduction
May 28, 2018, © Leeham News: Bombardier and Airbus may clear regulatory approvals next month, allowing for consummation of the latter’s acquisition of 50.01% of the CSeries program.
If all works, this will be well in advance of the Farnborough Air Show that begins July 15. Industry eyes will be on the FAS to see what orders might be announced by
Airbus for the CSeries, which reportedly may be renamed the A210 and A230 for the CS100 and CS300 respectively.
As May fades to June, Bombardier has beefed up its skyline quality, but there are some orders that are in doubt, including a big one for 40 airplanes.
Summary
- No sales since Dubai Air Show.
- Airbus-CSeries deal expected to close next month.
- Three questionable orders affect nearly 20% of backlog.
- Farnborough Air Show will be keen to watch for news.
Embraer skyline has serious challenges
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Introduction
May 21, 2018, © Leeham News: As Boeing and Embraer continue merger discussions for the latter’s commercial airplanes unit, the EJet skyline has some serious challenges.
The only order for the E175-E2 is a conditional sale.
Lessors account for half the orders of the E195-E2 and most of the E190-E2 deals.
More than half the orders for the E190-E1 may be canceled.
The data, from the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker, is as of April 15 and doesn’t include options, MOUs or LOIs. The firm order from American Airlines, for 15 E175-E1s, announced after this date, has been added by LNC.
Summary
- Slow sales hamper the backlog.
- The E2 hasn’t taken off as expected.
- The E175-E1 remains the staple of the six-member family.
Read more
Bombardier refocuses the CRJ
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 10, 2018, © Leeham News: American Airlines last week ordered 30 additional regional jets. Of these, 15 were the Embraer E175. No surprise there. It’s the traveler’s favourite and the market leader among US regional jets. But American Airlines also ordered the same number of Bombardier CRJ900. Why? Isn’t it a bit dated?
There are good reasons for this order and Bombardier sees a new spring for the trusted regional. We use our performance model to understand why.
Summary:
- The CRJ900 is still a good choice for the US Scope Clause regulated regional jet market.
- Is strong economics makes it a favourite with the airline’s bean counters.
- In addition, it has the longest cabin, enabling large First-class and Premium economy sections.
- With programmed updates, it will be competitive for years to come.
Pontifications: Fine balance needed by Boeing in aftermarket services drive
By Scott Hamilton
April 30, 2018, © Leeham News: The Wall Street Journal Friday reported Boeing was poised to purchase a supplier; a deal could be announced as early as today.
The acquisition, if it happens, will be a major step toward increasing the business at Boeing Global Services (BGS).
It will be another step in the vertical integration that recommenced under Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg, an outgrowth of too much outsourcing with the 787.
Coincidentally, the day before, Wendi Folkert, director for Supply Chain Propulsion Strategy for The Boeing Co., acknowledged that the growing BGS has to balance against competing with Boeing’s own suppliers.
Folkert made her remarks at the I-90 Aerospace Corridor Conference in Spokane (WA).
Phil Krull of Embraer Executive Jets will present at the Southeast Aerospace and Defence Conference in Mobile (AL) in June. Airbus, NASA, Pratt & Whitney, Bombardier, Southeastern state governments and suppliers will also present.Go here for Agenda and Registration information.
Airlines need OEM choices: Air Canada
Special to Leeham News
By Olivier Bonnassies
Airfinance Journal
April 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal, Montreal: The commercial aircraft manufacturing industry could head into a scenario with two major alliances: Airbus/Bombardier rivaling Boeing/Embraer, but for Air Canada, airlines need to have choices.
Calin Rovinescu, president of Air Canada. Photo via Google images.
“This is a terrific double-edge sword. Airlines definitively need to have choice,” said Calin Ravinescu, Air Canada president and chief executive officer at the Innovation Aerospace Forum in Montreal.
Ravinescu says the idea of a single source supply is not acceptable for maintenance prospective and from a customer service prospective.
“I am totally against any notion of single sourcing, or any component in any aircraft in any circumstances. Just like our customers, airlines expect competition is the aerospace and the aircraft space.