Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
MTU investors day: views of its engine programs, future airplane timelines; separately, Embraer COO interview
Figure 1. Technical milestones have been passed on PW GTF programs for the applications on Bombardier, Airbus, Mitsubishi and Irkut airplanes and are approaching for Embraer. Source: MTU Investors Day. Click to enlarge.
Nov. 30, 2014: MTU Investors Day: MTU is a major participant in engine development and supplies, participating on the GEnx, GTF and GEnx program. It’s also a member of the joint venture in International Aero Engines and it’s a major player in the aftermarket Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) sector, providing a serious competitive alternative to the aftermarket contracts offered by the engine OEMs. Its held an investors day conference Nov. 25. Highlights included:
- Milestones have been passed on the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fanengine for the Bombardier CSeries, Airbus A320neo family, the Mitsubishi MRJ and Irkut MC-21; and are on schedule for the Embraer E-Jet E2.
- The success of the GTF is requiring huge production commitments.
- The large number of airplane/engine programs require a major ramp-up of production during the next few years.
- The major investment in new engines is largely over for now, leading to the expectation of long-term revenue from MRO.
Odds and Ends: Storm Warnings; Boeing photos now available to everyone; CSeries; Movin’ on up
Nov. 26, 2014:Storm Warnings: We’ve made references in recent posts about airlines on our “Storm Warning Flag” list.
Our 2013 Top Customers and Storm Warning Flag list for wide-body airplanes. The Red are Middle Eastern airlines, blue from Asia and black from the US and Europe. Only one airline for wide-body orders was on our Storm Warning Flag list: AirAsiaX. Expansion and ordering we considered too rapid landed the carrier on the list. Sources: Airbus, Boeing. Click to enlarge.
In 2013, we compiled the Top Customers for Single-Aisle and Twin-Aisle Airplanes for Airbus and Boeing. Here’s our 2013 Storm Warning Flag list. The name comes from the flag, which signals Storm Warnings. This list was compiled before the 777X orders announced at Dubai were firmed up, so the yellow boxes show what the Top 10 Boeing rankings would be had they been. We considered the quantity of orders, the current operations, financial status and other factors in placing a carrier on our Storm Warning Flag list. The Wide-body list also illustrates the growing importance of the Middle Eastern airlines (consider that this was a year ago). The wide-body list is pretty stable.
Interview: CSeries program update with Bombardier’s program chief Dewar
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Now open to all Readers.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Nov. 24, 2014: Bombardier CSeries flight testing has now passed 500 flight hours, and with the addition of Flight Test Vehicle 5 to the test fleet soon, the head of the program believes BBD can hit its entry-into-service target of 2H2015.
Rob Dewar, VP-GM Bombardier CSeries. Source: Fliegerfaust.
Robert Dewar, VP and GM of CSeries, declined to affirm, or even confirm, a report that EIS now has an internal target of October 2015.
In a wide-ranging interview November 24 with Leeham News and Comment, Dewar talked about the flight test program; the repairs to the 
composite wing of FTV1 following an engine failure that showered the wing with debris; the Fly By Wire software that’s been nettlesome; and other issues.
Summary
- October 2015 now target for Entry-in-Service, reports Canada’s Desjardins. Dewar reiterated the 2H 2015 target, which remains the company’s official statement.
- Bombardier now has a four test aircraft flying with the fifth joining the test fleet around Christmas time.
- The test aircraft has flown the full flight envelope with the Fly By Wires “normal” mode enabled. Right now the testing is concentrated on the FBW failure modes.
- The next important test series is performance with FTV4, which has production engines fitted for the purpose. FTV4 had just had its first flights when the FTV fleet was grounded for three months following the engine failure in May.
- The final assembly facility is finished with its tooling in July and the first aircraft to be assembled there, the second production aircraft, is presently in final assembly in the facility.
Part 3: Boeing 757 replacement: 757 and Airbus A321neoLR versus clean sheet designs.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Part 3 of 3
Introduction
In Part 2 of our three-part 757 Replacement analysis, we took a close look at Airbus’ new 97 tonne take-off weight A321neo, revealed in a world exclusive by Leeham News and Comment October 21. We analyzed the A321neoLR’s capabilities and limitations when compared to Boeing 757-200W and we saw that it could do the international flights that the 757-200 does with about 25% better efficiency. In this final Part 3, we will now compare the 757 and A321neoLR against what can be Boeing’s reaction, a clean sheet New Single Aisle, NSA, or New Light Twin Aisle, (NLT). First the conclusions from Part 2:
- When using the United Airlines-configured 757-200W international as benchmark, we came within seven seats of the 757 capacity for an A321neoLR. It covered the same range and had trip fuel costs that were 25% lower.
- The per seat fuel costs gave a 22% higher efficiency, which was within 2% of Airbus own figures.
- 737 MAX9 is not suitable for stretch to an international version, not because the wing is not good enough but because the MAX9 cannot bring the wing to an angle at take-off where it can work efficiently; the landing gear is too short.
Summary
For Part 3 we can summarize:
- A New Single Aisle (NSA) or New Light Twin (NLT) which would enter the market in 2025 would be sized at around 200 passengers with subsequent variants covering the 175-225 seat market, all numbers with OEM standard two-class seating. Figure 1 shows the fuselage cross sections we have used in our modelling of NSA and NLT to cover this market segment.
Figure 1. Fuselage cross sections of our models of NSA and NLT. Source: Leeham Co.
- In order to cover the market segment of the 737, A320 and 757 it would have a range in excess of 4,100nm. We will use 4100nm for our modeling to maximize the comparative efficiency information.
- Its efficiency would be higher than an A321neoLR, primarily due to better engines and a more modern wing.
- The New Light Twin (NLT) wins on comfort and ground turn-around time but pays with a larger fuselage cross section due to the extra aisle. This causes more drag and structural weight, net effect is a reduction in efficiency of around 2.5%.
Odds and Ends: 787 donation; Alenia sues Bombardier over CSeries; 2016 777 delivery slots opening up
787 donation: The Boeing Co. handed over 787 test airplane #3 (ZA003) to the Museum of Flight Saturday in an elaborate ceremony marking an unprecedented donation of a modern airliner to an aviation museum.
Boeing 787 ZA003, which went on a world sales tour, was donated to Seattle’s Museum of Flight Nov. 8, 2014. The logos of customers bracket the #2 door. Photo by Leeham News and Comment. click to enlage.
To be sure, the donation was made possible by the fact that ZA003 (and 002 and 001) can’t be sold due to the massive rework necessary, and these three airplanes have been written off for more than $2bn. But this doesn’t make the event any less significant.
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Posted on November 9, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Douglas Aircraft Co, GE Aviation, Leeham News and Comment, Rolls-Royce
707, 727, 737, 747, 787, Air Force One, Air India. 777, Alenia, Boeing, Boeing 40A, Bombardier, Concorde, CSeries, DC-3, Douglas, GE Aviation, GEnx, Lockheed Constellation, Museum of Flight, Rolls-Royce, Shen, Trent 1000, ZA001, ZA002, ZA003