Pontifications: Earnings week for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer

Hamilton KING5_2

By Scott Hamilton

April 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer having their first quarter earnings call this week. Bombardier also has its Annual General Meeting concurrent with its 1Q earnings on Friday.

The big anticipation will be with Bombardier.

Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported Delta Air Lines was going to order 75+50 C Series from BBD. Delta, on its 1Q earnings call, said it had nothing to announce but would have more to say at its investors day. This is May 16.

But at the same time, BBD postponed its AGM and 1Q call from the 28th to the 29th. Delta’s board of directors meets on the 28th. Previously, BBD postponed by one day its year-end earnings call to coincide with Air Canada, which announced an order for 45 C Series, plus options.

Is Bombardier’s rescheduling another harbinger of the Delta order, or will Delta hold off any announcement until that May 16 investors day?

Or could Delta announce the Bombardier order Friday and the widely reported, expected order for 30-37 Airbus A321ceos?

The world aviation geeks wonder.

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Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500? Part 3.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We will now finish our series where we look into how big an undertaking a CS300 stretch to a 150 seater would be for Bombardier.

The C Series existing models, the CS100 and CS300, were designed with the CS300 as the main family member. That makes a stretch to a CS500 a pretty straight-forward job from a wing perspective, only minor adjustments are needed.

The problem area for the stretch is the fuselage. The C Series is a five abreast aircraft and at 150 seats the aircraft will have more than 30 seat rows. The resulting long fuselage limits the available rotation angle at takeoff.

Having discussed the different actions that can be taken to handle this problem in Part 2, we will now check the implications for the takeoff field length with our performance model. The model will also show if the engine takeoff thrust needs to be increased.

Finally, we will use the model to estimate the fuel consumption and the range of a CS500 derivative.

Summary

  • A CS500 derivative made from the CS300 is a pretty straight-forward stretch project.
  • Special care has to be taken with the risk for tails strikes from a longer fuselage.
  • With the discussed actions in place, the field performance of a CS500 is still very good, even though it can’t compete with a CS300.
  • The range would be less than a CS300 but the aircraft would still be capable of five hour missions.
  • Fuel consumption would be higher per trip but lower per seat than a CS300. It would give existing 150 seaters strong competition on efficiency.

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Bombardier’s Delta deal looking good, but don’t celebrate yet

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Introduction

Air Baltic CS300

Air Baltic will be the first operator of the Bombardier CS300. Source: Bombardier.

April 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier, if it didn’t dominate the news cycle in commercial aviation last week, must have come close. Consider:

  • The Wall Street Journal, and then Bloomberg, reported that BBD was near to winning a big order for 75+50 from Delta Air Lines for its C Series.
  • Reuters reported that BBD rejected demands from the Canadian federal government in Ottawa as conditions for investing US$1bn in the company. (Officials tried to walk this back some, saying talks continue.)
  • The head of corporate strategy for BBD came forward to forcefully argue for the investment as good for taxpayers, breaking what largely has been a cone of silence over the perceived merits of a deal
  • The US$1bn the Quebec provincial government agreed to invest last year remains unfunded.
  • BBD stock, which last year dropped to less than C$1, threatening the listings on the Canadian exchanges, jumped to C$1.75 at one point in anticipation of a Delta order.

While on balance, it seems likely Delta will order the C Series, Bombardier has been down this road before. Only a few months ago, the market and others were excited over the prospect that BBD was close to landing an order from United Airlines, only to see Boeing swoop in and grab the deal.

Summary

  • This is the second try at a major contract with Delta Air Lines.
  • The primary competition is against Embraer, not Airbus or Boeing.
  • We revisit our Skyline Risk Assessment, dormant for the extended period in which BBD had no sales of the C Series.

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Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and export credit support

Hamilton KING5_2

By Scott Hamilton

April 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Export Credit for airliners was back in the news last week, with the US taking aim at the prospect of Canada’s agency supporting sales of the Bombardier C Series to the US and France and Germany suspending export credit support for Airbus airplanes.

The week before, Dennis Muilenburg, the CEO of The Boeing Co., testified before Congress that although the US ExIm Bank was reauthorized, Senate action—or more accurately, inaction—on confirming members of the ExIm Board of Directors has kept the agency shut down for new deals. There isn’t a quorum of members on the Board to approve new deals.

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Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier is working hard to get additional mainline airline customers for its C Series project. The latest discussion is whether Delta Air Lines would replace its fleet of Boeing MD-88s with the C Series.

CS300

Figure 1. C Series largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.

In this context, it’s also discussed if the largest model, the CS300, Figure 1, is large enough for Delta. This aircraft seats 135 passengers in a two class configuration and up to 160 passengers in an all economy high density version.

The question is whether this is sufficient for Delta and other mainline customers, or if a still larger version is needed in the program, the oft-discussed CS500. We decided to use our proprietary aircraft model to see if a CS500 would be straight forward for Bombardier to develop, should Delta or any other customer ask for a three model C Series program.

Summary

  • The C Series aircraft program was developed with the CS300 as the main model. The wing, engine and landing gear were dimensioned with the CS300 in mind.
  • The CS100 is a shrink of the CS300, and not vice versa (the CS300 a stretch of the CS100).
  • A tentative CS500 stretch if therefore a first stretch of the program’s main model and not a double stretch of a CS100.
  • This is evident when one starts to analyze how a CS500 would be designed. There are rather modest changes that need to be done to create an extended model that seat up to 180 passengers.

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Why Boeing won’t take a charge on 787s

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Introduction

Boeing 787-9. Source: Boeing.

April 11, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has $29bn in deferred production costs and another $3bn in deferred tooling costs for its 787. The accounting block, for its program accounting, is a record 1,300 aircraft. Many Wall Street analysts are skeptical whether Boeing will ever recover the huge deferred numbers.

Boeing insists it will.

Still, taking a charge of some number—as it has done twice for the 747-8 and twice for the 767-based KC-46A—is something Boeing repeatedly insists it doesn’t need to do.

Why not?

There are a few key reasons, say Wall Street analysts who follow Boeing: revenue, cash flow and the stock price.

Summary

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates Boeing needs to post a profit of $30m on each of the remaining 900 787s to be delivered to recover the deferred costs. LNC figures this number is higher.
  • Pricing pressure from Airbus makes it difficult to obtain this profit.
  • The deferred costs limit Boeing’s ability to price down to meet Airbus’ offers to customers.
  • Credit Suisse figures Boeing can recover only some $22bn of $29bn in deferred production costs.
  • Boeing warns in SEC filings a forward loss might be required.
  • But no forward loss is likely unless revenue falls short.

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C Series in Europe for route-proving

By Bjorn Fehrm

23 March 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier and Swiss International Airlines (SWISS) held a press conference in Zürich today at the conclusion of the C Series European route-proving. The route-proving on SWISS network was part of the final preparations ahead of an Entry Into Service (EIS) for CSeries with SWISS end of June.

The route-proving was done by Bombardier pilots with SWISS pilots as observers. SWISS service personnel conducting ground services for the aircraft under the supervision of Bombardier personnel.

We got an exclusive interview with Rob Dewar, Vice President C Series aircraft program, after the press conference. We discussed the progress with the C Series program and the result of the route-proving. Read more

Airbus needs more vertical integration, says official

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Introduction

John Leahy

John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers. Airbus photo.

March 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus may well have avoided the supplier-driven delivery delays on its A350s had the company brought some key work in-house and become more vertically integrated, says its chief operating officer-customers.

Airbus has been bedeviled by delays in business class seat and galley deliveries from supplier Zodiac, resulting in delayed deliveries of the A350-900 to several airlines.

John Leahy, in an interview with LNC at the International Society for Aircraft Transport Trading (ISTAT) conference Feb. 29-March 1 in Phoenix (AZ), said Airbus shouldn’t be at the mercy of suppliers of interiors. His wide-ranging interview also touched on several other topics.

Summary

  • Airbus should have become more vertically integrated 10 years ago.
  • Basic supply chain solid.
  • Speaks about PW GTF, CFM LEAP
  • Airbus considering higher production rate on A320 than the announced 60/mo.

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ISTAT Day 1: Engine updates for CFM, GE, RR and PW

Feb. 29, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: The LEAP engine, for the Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus ISTAT-logo_no_tag-(2c)A320neo and COMAC C919 is the fastest-selling engine in history, says Jean-Paul Ebanga, the president of CFM International. More than 10,000 have been sold.

  • We’re at the 2016 ISTAT AGM in Phoenix and will be reporting today and tomorrow on presentations and news from the sidelines.

“It’s on-time and on-spec,” Ebanga said. It’s either been on the date set four years ago or ahead of schedule. The engines delivered to Airbus for the A320neo are on spec, he said. It’s been certified for the neo and will be certified soon for the MAX, with 90% of the information submitted.

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In strategy shift, Boeing backs 7 MAX: sources

Boeing LogoFeb. 22, 2016, (c) Leeham Co. In a shift in strategy, Boeing is now fully backing development of the 737-7 MAX instead of urging the only two customers that have ordered the airplane to up-gauge to the MAX 8, sources tell LNC.

Southwest Airlines and WestJet are the only two operating airlines for the 7 MAX. There is a third customer, a start-up in Canada that has yet to begin operations.

Sources have told LNC for months that Boeing really didn’t really want to build the 7 MAX, for which there are only 55 orders. But Southwest needs the airplane for short-runway airports like Chicago Midway and Burbank (CA) and has resisted suggestions to up-gauge, LNC is told.

All this changed when it looked like Bombardier might make a sale of its all-new CS100 to United Airlines, LNC is told.

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