Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
LNC is off to the Paris Air Show
June 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Leeham News and Comment is off to the Paris Air Show.
Coverage will begin Sunday, with several events in advance of the show’s official opening Monday. We’ll be there through Thursday, with the end-of-show press conference by Airbus.
We provided a full preview May 22 for our paywall customers.
Here’s an update, in an abbreviated version:
MC-21 and C919 compared. Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 15, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We continued the comparison of Irkut’s MC-21 and COMAC’s C919 last week with an analysis of the cabins and systems. The week before, we compared project time plans, structures and aerodynamics.
Now we finish with an analysis of the economics of the aircraft.
Summary:
- The MC-21 is the more advanced aircraft of the two. It uses carbon composites for the wings and empennage.
- Coupled with more refined aerodynamics, the MC-21 offers a higher efficiency than the more classical C919.
MC-21 and C919 compared. Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
June 08, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We started the comparison of Irkut’s MC-21 and COMAC’s C919 last week. We compared project time plans, structures and aerodynamics.
Now we continue with the comparison of cabin capacities and systems.
Summary:
- The C919 cabin is a slightly longer copy of the Airbus A320 cabin. MC-21 sets new standards for cabins in the single aisle segment.
- Both aircraft use Western systems to ease development and improve in-service reliability.
Bombardier optimistic about China
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Introduction
June 5, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier’s activities in China, where the fuselage for the CSeries is co-produced, have been at a standstill.
None of the Memorandums of Understand or Letters of Intent have been converted to firm
Bombardier Q400.
orders. A recent news report suggested renewed talks between COMAC, China’s commercial aircraft enterprise, and Bombardier over acquisition of the CSeries program
LNC sat down with Fred Cromer, president of Bombardier Commercial Airplanes, at the annual general meeting of IATA to discuss these and other issues.
Summary
- An update on the COMAC-CSeries relationship.
- An update on the slow-selling Q400 and CRJ programs.
- An update on the oft-discussed CS500.
Read more
MC-21 and C919 compared
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Note: With the first flight of the Irkut MC-21 in the weekend, we move the Qantas Ultra Long Haul article Part 2 to a later date.
Introduction
June 01, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Irkut’s MC-21 and COMAC’s C919 both completed their first flights during last month. Both are new competitors in the market’s hottest segment, that for 150 to 240 seats.
They both challenge the present rulers: Airbus’ A320 and Boeing’s 737 MAX. We made first analysis of the aircraft against their Western competition here, here and here.
We now dig deeper with a direct comparison between the MC-21 and C919 projects.
Summary:
- In the first article, we compare the projects, the structural concepts and the aerodynamics of the MC-21 and C919.
- Follow up articles will compare systems, cabins and overall performance for the aircraft.
Paris Air Show Preview
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Introduction
May 22, 2017, © Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins June 17, and few in the industry expect much in the way of orders this year.
The order cycle is on the downward side of the bell curve. Sustaining the 2,000, 3,000 or nearly 4,000 gross orders announced 2011-2013 simply couldn’t be achieved. The “order bubble” had to break, and it did. Last year, Airbus and Boeing reported some 1,400 orders between them.
Airbus guides that it will tough to achieve a 1:1 book:bill this year. Boeing is running about 1:1 book:bill so far but it also guides conservatively. Still, LNC thinks Boeing might surprise this year–and some of this could be at the Paris Air Show.
Leeham Co.’s new publication, Commercial Aviation Report, provides a Focus Report on the Air Show. This encompasses the expectations for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, COMAC, Irkut, Mitsubishi, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce into one easy-to-read package.
The pre-airshow press briefings by the OEMs begin next week. We don’t expect any earth-shattering news from these and we wanted to get our views out ahead of these briefings.
Summary
- Boeing wants to launch the 737-10 MAX at the Paris Air Show. This could spur a group of orders that would give Boeing a rare win in the headlines vs Airbus on the latter’s home ground.
- Mitsubishi plans to have its MRJ90 at the Air Show. One airplane entered the paint shop for ANA colors–this might be the one making the appearance.
- Embraer expects to have its KC-390 there. Will the E195-E2 also make an appearance?
Pontifications: Emirates profits drop 83%, MC-21 and more news last week
By Scott Hamilton
May 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It was a busy news week last week.
- Emirates Airline headlined its 29th consecutive year of profits, but downplayed an 83% decline.
- The Irkut MC-21 moved to the tarmac, an indication first flight may be coming shortly.
- Multiple media reports indicate that electronics flight ban from the Middle East may be extended in part to all of Europe.
- Boeing suspended test flights on the 737 MAX after CFM discovered some quality issues in some LEAP 1B engines.
Let’s look at these events.
C919, the Chinese challenger
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
May 01, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) C919 is expected to have its first flight this month, perhaps as early as this week. We review where the program stands and how it compares to its competition.
When the C919 program was launched in 2008, neither Airbus nor Boeing envisioned re-engining the A320 and 737 families. First flight was planned for 2014 and entry-into-service in 2016.
The C919 would have had economic and capital cost advantages over the A320 and 737NG. With program delays of at least four years, and maybe more, those advantages have been narrowed. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines, sum up
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 14, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We’ve been talking engines on Fridays since October 2016. The Corners covered several areas, from technologies to operations.
And we could go on and dig deeper. But we will move on.
Before we go, we sum up what we have learned in the 24 Corners around airliner Turbofans.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a three-shaft wide-body turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
CDB Leasing aims for 500-600 aircraft portfolio
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Introduction
March 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: China’s evolving commercial aerospace and aviation industry has high-profile companies such as AVIC and COMAC, and its expanding supplier based, combined with joint ventures with Western companies is well known.
Less well known is the growth in the aircraft leasing business. Increasingly, Chinese lessors are showing up on the order lists of the Big Four aircraft manufacturers. Still, there remains a bit of a mystery about the lessors and dynamics within China.
LNC spoke with the newly appointed CEO of CDB Leasing during the ISTAT conference last week in San Diego.
Peter Chang has been in the Western leasing business for decades, employed in key positions with Aviation Capital Group, ILFC and Aircastle—usually with responsibility for China.
He was named CEO of CDB in December, a move that was announced during the January Dublin conferences of Airlines Economics and Airfinance Journal. More key personnel announcements were made during ISTAT.
In an exclusive interview, LNC asked Chang about the origins of CDB, other Chinese lessors, the current policy of restricting flow of Chinese cash outside the country, the Boeing 737-10 and the Bombardier CSeries.
Here is this interview.