While we’re in the slow-news Holidays, we thought we’d have some irreverent fun. There have been many attempts at building airliners. There are the obvious successes but there have been many, many failures. Starting with the end of World War II, we’ve collected the following for our nominees for duds–sales or technological failures. We invite readers to make their own nominations. If you have photos, add them to your Comments.
This list is in no particular order. Next week we’ll construct a poll to see how the airplanes rank. Read more
Posted on December 23, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, China, Comac, Douglas Aircraft Co
707, 727, 880, 990, Airbus, Airlift, American Airlines, ARJ21, AVIC, BEA, BOAC, Boeing, Braniff Airlines, Bristol, Britannia, British European Airlines, Budd, Canadair, CL-44, Comac, Comet, Constoga, Convair, Dassualt, DC-4 M2, DC-8, de Havilland, Electra, Flying Tiger, Fokker-VFW, Fokker-VFW 614, Howard Hughes, Lockheed, Lockheed Electra, Loftleider, Martin, Martin 202, Martin 303, Martin 404, Mercure, Seaboard World, Stratocruiser, Trident, TWA, United Airlines
The new chief executive officer of United Technologies Corp., Gregory Hayes, threw cold water on hopes and dreams of Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary, that the successful small- and medium-sized Geared Turbo Fan will grow into the wide-body market.
Aviation Week just published an article in which all three engine OEMs were reported to be looking at a 40,000 lb engine that would be needed to power a replacement in the category of the Boeing 757 and small 767. Hayes did not specifically rule out a 40,000 lb engine, leaving PW’s potential to compete for this business unclear.
Hayes has been CEO for two weeks. He was previously CFO. He made his remarks in a UTC investors event last night. The Hartford Courant has this report.
Hayes’ remarks were in response to a question from an analyst about research and development expenses. Here is his reply, from a transcript of the event:
Posted on December 12, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, 757, 757 replacement, 767, 767 replacement, A320NEO, Alain M. Bellemare, Bombardier, C919, CFM, Comac, CSeries, E-Jet E2, Embraer, GE Aviation, Gregory Hayes, GTF, Irkut, MC-21, Mitsubishi, MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, United Technologies
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Introduction
Nov. 30, 2014: Airlines now lease about 50% of their aircraft under a variety of mechanisms: operating, finance, leveraged and Islamic leases, just to name a few.
There are operating leasing, special purpose and “house” companies. There are leasing units of investment banks, insurance companies and a host of others.
Ireland is a popular leasing venue because of favorable tax laws.
The Big Four airframe OEMs have long sold aircraft directly to lessors, and the emerging airframe OEMs, COMAC and Irkut, have seen orders placed by emerging lessors in their home countries. ATR, the turbo-prop OEM, also has received orders from lessors.
Today we look at the lessor relationships with Airbus and Boeing.
Summary
Posted on November 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Premium
737, 747-400, 747-8, 777-300ER, A320, AerCap, Air Lease Corp., Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, GECAS, George Batchelor, ILFC, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Steven Udvar-Hazy
The Zhuhai Air Show, underway this week, comes against the backdrop of rising concerns–and large orders announced in recent weeks–of an over-ordered Asian market.
We’ve expressed concern about the large number of orders at Lion Air and AirAsia Group and AirAsia X–these two airlines alone have about 1,000 orders of various Airbus and Boeing types–and the proliferation of low cost airlines for which a shake out is inevitable. We also have expressed concern about India.
Two reports were issued in recent weeks, one arguing Asia is not over-ordered and the other taking a much deeper dive into the entire Asian market.
Lessor CIT Aerospace concludes not only is Asia not over-ordered but China is vastly under-ordered.
The Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation (CAPA) issued a 72 page study that examines Southeast Asia, India and China. CAPA concludes the LCC market is only in its infancy in China, India continues to be a financial disaster and Asian airlines are struggling for profitability.
Posted on November 11, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
The 10th Chinese airshow at Zhuhai opened today. It was a day with fewer announcements than expected from the usual suspects (Airbus, Boeing…) but the Chinese industry did not disappoint. China is now showing more and more of its coming might as a player on the aeronautics arena.
The most prominent displays at this show were on the military side, where China has two stealth aircraft projects flying (the large Chengdu canard J-20 and the smaller Shenyang J-31) while their canard Chengdu J-10 was flying the display circuits overhead (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Chinas latest fighter developments; the J-31 and J-20 stealth fighters and the canard J-10. Source: China internet.
All aircraft are of latest structural and aerodynamic design if not in engines and systems. This is a big difference to previous shows where the Russian Sukhoi and MIG aircraft and their local copies did the flying display until 2008. Since then everything has changed and now China and USA are the only countries in the world with two different stealth designs flying. USA has one in operation (F-22) and one close to (F-35) whereas China still has many years to go until they have their new aircraft operational. But it is significant that the old aeronautical behemoths Europe and Russia have none respective one (PAK-50) stealth fighter in flight test.
The Zhuhai Air Show begins next Tuesday and a visit by President Obama to Beijing for a regional summit starts on the last day of the show, Nov. 16. Accordingly, we expect at least some orders to be announced during the show by Airbus, Boeing and perhaps the other airframe OEMs, including the home-grown COMAC, developer of the C919 and parent of AVIC, the developer of the ARJ21.
The Zhuhai Air Show has evolved into China’s premier show. While not on the international reputation and prestige of the long-established Farnborough, Paris and Singapore air shows, it’s become an important must-attend for OEMs and others wanting to do business in China.
Here is our forecast for next weeks’ event.
Posted on November 4, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
C919/ARJ21: Aviation Week reports that the COMAC C919 might fly be the end of next year and that EIS may be in 2018.
However, Michel Merluzeau, of G2 Solutions in Kirkland (WA), predicts the EIS won’t happen until 2020. Speaking last week before the British American Business Council-Pacific Northwest unit conference in Seattle, Merluzeau said that after a recent trip to Shanghai, where COMAC is, he now sees EIS in 2020, some four years late and 12 years after the program was launched. The C919 competes with the Airbus A320/321 and the Boeing 737-800/8 and 737-900ER/9.
Posted on November 3, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Free content.
Leeham News and Comment (LNC) today launched a Premium subscription plan as a companion to free content.
LNC has provided news and commentary since February 2008, providing industry-leading information and insightful analysis, principally focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer but also including emerging challengers to the Big Four OEMs, the leading engine manufacturers, suppliers and airline news.
LNC has been a leading resource of news and comment throughout the commercial aviation industry and its professional followers in the aerospace supply chain, investment analysts and the media.
Since the first of this year, LNC increasingly provided more and more technically-based content. This content is valuable and supplements the industry-leading news and reporting that has been provided since 2008. We are pleased to announce the addition to our staff, Bjorn Fehrm, who focuses on technical evaluation and complements the strategic expertise of Scott Hamilton, the founder of LNC and Leeham Co. consultancy.
Posted on October 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
First of two parts.
Earlier this year, Airbus officials said they will concentrate on improving existing airplanes once the A350 enters service.
Boeing followed by saying it would not take any “moonshots” and develop new airplanes, at least for some indeterminate time.
The sentiment on the part of both companies is understandable if not disappointing for aviation purists who want to see new and innovative airplane models rather than made-over sub-types.
This is one of those cases where both schools of thought are right. (Text continues below photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
New airplanes are, to state the obvious, very expensive to develop and in this increasingly technological age and demand for “smarter” airplanes that are more fuel efficient and which try to improve passenger experience while cramming as many revenue-paying passengers into the airplane as possible, becoming more and more challenging. Where it once was possible to bring an airplane to market within four years of launch, today airframers routinely look at seven years and even eight. Even derivative airplanes are now taking six or seven years to enter service from launch.
Posted on October 6, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Part 3: Boeing 757 replacement: 757 and Airbus A321neoLR versus clean sheet designs.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Part 3 of 3
Introduction
In Part 2 of our three-part 757 Replacement analysis, we took a close look at Airbus’ new 97 tonne take-off weight A321neo, revealed in a world exclusive by
Leeham News and Comment October 21. We analyzed the A321neoLR’s capabilities and limitations when compared to Boeing 757-200W and we saw that it could do the international flights that the 757-200 does with about 25% better efficiency. In this final Part 3, we will now compare the 757 and A321neoLR against what can be Boeing’s reaction, a clean sheet New Single Aisle, NSA, or New Light Twin Aisle, (NLT). First the conclusions from Part 2:
Summary
For Part 3 we can summarize:
Figure 1. Fuselage cross sections of our models of NSA and NLT. Source: Leeham Co.
Read more
5 Comments
Posted on October 28, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, CFM, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Irkut, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce, Uncategorized
737, 737 MAX, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GTF, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce