Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Bombardier CS300 analysis vs A319neo, 737-7
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 29, 2015, c. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s big bet in the aeronautics sector, CSeries, is well into flight testing, now more than half way toward the 2,400 hours required by Transport Canada before certification can be granted. The first aircraft to be certified will be the smaller 110 seat CS100 but the market is most interested in the larger 135 seat CS300, which has 63% of present orders and commitments, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Cseries largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
Bombardier’s new CEO, Alan Bellemare, told reporters last week that the CS100 would be certified during 2015 with entry into service slipping into 2016. The CS300, which is a direct challenger to Airbus’ A319neo and Boeing’s 737-7, should follow six months after CS100. With the CS300 in flight testing and going into service next summer, we decided to have a deeper look at CS300 and its competitors.
Summary
- A319 and 737-7 are shrinks of the market’s preferred models, A320 and 737-8, and as such not the most efficient models.
- The CS300 is the series center-point and it shows. The modern design beats the Airbus and Boeing designs on most counts.
- Part of the modern concepts in CSeries is the well-conceived Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan.
- PW’s 73 in fan version of the PW1000G for CSeries is slightly less efficient that the 81 in version for A319neo but CS300 lower weight makes sure this is more than compensated for.
Airbus Group 2014, analysis after press conference
By Bjorn Fehrm
Munich 27 Feb. 2015: The team from Airbus Group that met the press in Munich today consisted of Tom Enders, Airbus Group Chief Executive Officer, Harald Wilhelm, Airbus Group Chief Financial Officer and Marwan Lahoud, Head of Airbus Group strategy and M&A.
It was a team in good spirits that met around 150 on-site journalists from mainly Europe, with both Tom Enders and Harald Wilhelm clearly at ease with the groups improving results and giving Marwan Lahoud compliments for his restructuring work in the groups remaining problem areas.
Before we go into the areas with work in progress, lets focus on why these gentlemen felt at ease with presenting the state of Airbus Group after its first year operating under the new name. Read more
Bombardier’s crisis of confidence perhaps the biggest challenge for CSeries
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Introduction
Feb. 18, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Alain Bellemare, Bombardier’s new president and chief executive officer, has his work cut out for him.
Figure 1. The CSeries was supposed to enter service in late 2013, two full years ahead of the Airbus A320neo. This market advantage has been lost with repeated delays. BBD is sticking to its public statement that EIS is now the second half of this year (most put EIS in the fourth quarter), but there is growing belief EIS will slip to the first or even the second quarter of next year–after the A320neo EIS. Source: Bombardier, Airbus, Leeham Co. Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view.
We outlined the corporate and market perception challenges ahead of him in our Feb. 13 post. Investor and media reception to the CEO leadership change was mixed. Although Bellemare’s appointment was seen as a positive, stock traded down and Bombardier took a pounding in the press (see some reaction at the bottom of this post).
He also has challenges with a changing market place, driven by two years worth of delays in the CSeries program and exacerbated by a changing global political environment.
Summary
- Bombardier faces a crisis in confidence from customers that has to be fixed.
- The CSeries has lost its entry-into-service advantage over the Airbus A320neo and has reduced its advantage over the A319neo, the Boeing 737-8/7 and Embraer E-190/195 E2 EIS due to delays.
- A changing global political environment poses additional risks to the CSeries skyline.
Looking ahead in 2015 in commercial aviation
Here’s a visualization of events to look for in commercial aviation in 2015.
Click to enlarge for crisp view.
Zhuhai airshow: Airbus gains A320 MOU while regional A330 needs explaining
The Zhuhai airshow has not brought the expected slew of announcements from Western aircraft manufacturers. Boeing announced an order for 80 737 MAX Monday but this was characteristically from a leasing company across the Chinese see, SBMC Capital of Tokio.
Airbus on the other hand has not been able to move the much talked about A330 regional to order yet, despite announcing it in China last year and enticing with an announcement for a Chinese completion center for the aircraft before the show. Flightglobal reports that the A330 regional needs further explaining, Chinese carriers seems hesitant to buy what Boeing pitches as “obsolete technology” in a weight variant that only could fly local missions.
Airbus China president Eric Chen explains that the 200t variant is not constrained to Chinese mainland and can fly any missions that its range would allow. He also points out that the weight variant is just that, a de-papered weight version that can be upped to whatever take off weight the customer wishes at a later date by paperwork changes (and perhaps some additional galley equipment). As for technology level, an aircraft shall be valued for its contribution to a carriers business says Chen, not by which years it says on its airworthiness certificate.
The smaller A320 did not disappoint reports Aviation Week, Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier could announce a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) for 100 A320 from state affiliated China Aircraft Leasing whereof 74 would be A320neo. The order, once confirmed, can help Chinese carriers with the aircraft demand for the 2016-2020 economic planning period. Chinese carriers have been slow to place the necessary early OEM orders for the period (needed due to the large backlogs), the lessor sees it can back-fill that demand when the carriers comes around to needing the aircraft.
Airbus also has explaining to do in other corners of the world, Emirates intend to start second round talks around A350 in the next months according to Reuters. The first round of 70 aircraft was cancelled after Emirates did not understand a specification change that Airbus undertook without consulting Emirates. This time Emirates will see the aircraft flying with neighbor Qatar Airways before agreeing to any specifications according to Emirates CEO Tim Clark.
Zhuhai Airshow: China’s aircraft industry is gaining speed
The 10th Chinese airshow at Zhuhai opened today. It was a day with fewer announcements than expected from the usual suspects (Airbus, Boeing…) but the Chinese industry did not disappoint. China is now showing more and more of its coming might as a player on the aeronautics arena.
The most prominent displays at this show were on the military side, where China has two stealth aircraft projects flying (the large Chengdu canard J-20 and the smaller Shenyang J-31) while their canard Chengdu J-10 was flying the display circuits overhead (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Chinas latest fighter developments; the J-31 and J-20 stealth fighters and the canard J-10. Source: China internet.
All aircraft are of latest structural and aerodynamic design if not in engines and systems. This is a big difference to previous shows where the Russian Sukhoi and MIG aircraft and their local copies did the flying display until 2008. Since then everything has changed and now China and USA are the only countries in the world with two different stealth designs flying. USA has one in operation (F-22) and one close to (F-35) whereas China still has many years to go until they have their new aircraft operational. But it is significant that the old aeronautical behemoths Europe and Russia have none respective one (PAK-50) stealth fighter in flight test.
Part 3: Boeing 757 replacement: 757 and Airbus A321neoLR versus clean sheet designs.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Part 3 of 3
Introduction
In Part 2 of our three-part 757 Replacement analysis, we took a close look at Airbus’ new 97 tonne take-off weight A321neo, revealed in a world exclusive by
Leeham News and Comment October 21. We analyzed the A321neoLR’s capabilities and limitations when compared to Boeing 757-200W and we saw that it could do the international flights that the 757-200 does with about 25% better efficiency. In this final Part 3, we will now compare the 757 and A321neoLR against what can be Boeing’s reaction, a clean sheet New Single Aisle, NSA, or New Light Twin Aisle, (NLT). First the conclusions from Part 2:
Summary
For Part 3 we can summarize:
Figure 1. Fuselage cross sections of our models of NSA and NLT. Source: Leeham Co.
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Posted on October 28, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, CFM, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Irkut, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce, Uncategorized
737, 737 MAX, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GTF, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce