Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Irkut MC-21, first analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Feb. 08, 2016, © Leeham Co: We recently covered China’s COMAC C919 and now the time has come to the other new narrow body aircraft from the old Communist bloc, the Russian MC-21.
The aircraft is called Irkut MC-21. Not many have heard of Irkut, so the first reaction is that this aircraft is made by a new Russian aircraft firm. The change is that United Aircraft (the Russian aircraft industry holding company) this time called the aircraft after its manufacturing company and not the design bureau, Yakovlev, that Irkut acquired in 2004. There are discussions to change back to the project’s original name Yakovlev 242 once certification is done.
When we looked at the first civil airliner that the Russian federation designed after the fall of Soviet Union, the Sukhoi Superjet 100, we found a well designed aircraft equipped with Western system. The MC-21 follows the same lines, but has more Russian technological development. It is therefore well worth a look.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has its own profile. It is not a copy of a Western aircraft. It has a wider cabin than the A320, a wing which allows a higher cruise speed and a higher capacity in its base variant, the MC-21-300.
- To make a meaningful comparison between the MC-21 and established aircraft, we have chosen to compare the MC-21-200 with the Airbus A320neo, as the MC-21-300 is larger than the A320neo but smaller than an A321neo. The MC-21-200 is closer in size to an A320neo. Read more
The fuel effect; or old is beautiful
By Bjorn Fehrm
19 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: When Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, said that the Airbus A340-600 “is a fantastic aircraft at fuel below $60 a barrel but perhaps not at $120,” he put operational words to something the Growth Frontiers 2016 conference in Dublin had been grappling with since it opened on Monday morning.
What is going to happen now? Crude is falling below $30 a barrel and Jet fuel is below $1 a gallon. This must have an effect on how people decide, whatever the lessors and aircraft OEMs say.
And it had to be a senior airline CEO that broke the mantra that everyone was repeating: “We don’t see fuel prices having any effect on fleet planning for airlines.”
Bjorn’s Corner: What did we learn in 2015?
By Bjorn Fehrm
08 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: It’s the first Corner for the year and a look at 2015 as a year of technology advancements is due. 2015 will be remembered as the year when three clean sheet airliners passed important milestones. This will not happen for many years to come, so it will be worth to look at what they brought to world of aviation.
I’m thinking of Bombardier’s (BBD) CSeries getting certification for its first variant; the Mitsubishi MRJ doing its first flight’ and COMAC’s C919 being rolled out. Going forward, we will only have derivatives progressing through such milestones for years except for the roll-out of United Aircraft’s MS-21 single aisle airliner in 2016.
The Airbus A320neo was certified in 2015 and Boeing’s 737 MAX rolled out, but these are derivatives of in-service aircraft.
Embraer’s E-Jet E2 will roll out in February but this is a further development of today’s E-jet and Airbus A350-1000 is a variant of the in-service A350-900.
It will be a long time before we see so much new in a year, so it can be instructive to look at to what extent did these new aircraft bring the state of the art of airliners forward.
State investment in Bombardier further mockery of WTO
Nov. 24, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. With the $1bn investment by the Province of Quebec in the Bombardier 
CSeries program, another example of government funding emerges in commercial aviation development.
Setting aside whether the investment might be challenged before the World Trade Organization—and whether this makes good business sense for Quebec—the move makes a mockery of the entire concept of avoiding government support.
The turbo-prop conundrum: small market, high costs
ATR Turbo-prop. Photo via Google images.
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Introduction
ATR and Bombardier are incumbents. China has a home-market offering.
Indonesia and India want to create a product.
It’s the 60-seat and up turbo-prop market.
It’s too many companies chasing too-small a market.
Summary
- The 20-year demand for 60-99 seat turbo-props is small.
- Developing a new, clean-sheet design is costly.
- There is a solid demand for an inexpensive 19-34 seat turbo-prop—but nobody is interested.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft systems, the real nuts to crack
By Bjorn Fehrm
06 November 2015, ©. Leeham Co: COMAC’s C919 was rolled out in the week. We got to see a new shiny aircraft which looked ready to fly. The nicely curved fuselage and wings were immaculate, the paint was shiny and the CFM LEAP-1C engines were ready to go.
Yet many ask, when will it fly for the first time? It used to be that when the airframe was finished and the engines ran reliably it was time to fly. No longer! Today the most challenging part of an aircraft program is the integration of all the complex systems which hide under the skin. This is what kept the Bombardier CSeries on ground longer than it should and the Boeing 787 and Airbus A380 had the same flu (the latter also had to short wires).
It is the part of the aircraft which takes longest to get to work reliably. The A380 is known for its long period of nuisance warnings from the complex avionics system after entry into service and the reliability work for the 787 has to a large extent been one of software tuning of its system side.
As the system function of modern aircraft has grown more complex the whole architecture of how it was built had to be changed. Here’s how.
No fear of C919 for a generation
Nov. 4, 2015, © Leeham Co. The first COMAC C919 was rolled out of the factory over the weekend, China’s mainline entry into the fiercely competitive arena now “owned” by the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
COMAC C919. Click on image to enlarge. Photo via Google images.
Although the two giants each has said China is the next competitor they will have to face, the Big Two have nothing to worry about for a generation to come.
Here’s why.
ISTAT Europe 2015 in Prague: LCCs and Turkish airways take over Europe
By Bjorn Fehrm
06 October 2015, ©. Leeham Co: The global airline industry is on a steady course as a whole, but there are dramatic changes within Europe as low cost carriers, plus Turkish Airlines, redraw the competitive landscape.
China’s current economic softness raises concerns, with an independent analysis concluding that economic growth here is 2%-3% instead of the announced rate of 7%-8%.
Still, the mixed messages given at the annual ISTAT meeting in Europe this week didn’t put a damper on the mood of 1,200 delegates here in Prague.
- The airlines are fine for 2015 as the fuel price is low but what about 2016? China is braking to a halt and Asia is getting infected? Will the infection spread? Will the airlines return to bad results?
- What about the European airline industry? Can the low costs units of IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM compete with the up-and-coming LCCs? Who is king of long haul travel out of Europe?
- What about the order glut? When Asia slows, will the order bubble break?
Airbus gearing toward 63 A320s per month; Boeing sure to follow
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 5, 2015, © Leeham Co. Airbus appears to be closing in on a decision to boost the production rate of the A320 family to 63/mo by the end of the decade, a new report from Bernstein Research Group says.
Boeing is sure to follow with rate boosts for the 737, Bernstein writes in an Oct. 1 note.
Leeham Co. has been predicting these moves all year, and in LNC’s interview with Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders last month at the opening of the A320 Final Assembly Line (FAL) in Mobile (AL), Enders indicated the decision to boost rates would be made by the end of the year.
Assessing the China market
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Introduction
Sept. 30, 2015, (c) Leeham Co.: The Boeing deals announced last week with China put the country into the spotlight about its commercial aviation ambitions.
For many, the various deals announced by Boeing raise alarm bells. For most, that fire horse already left the fire station. The smoke has been billowing out of China (or maybe that’s smog) for a long, long time.
Summary
- Boeing announces 300 orders and commitments for China, though the company was vague about the details. We try to dissect what’s real and what’s smoke.
- Additional deals announced by Boeing are driven by China’s pay-to-play approach to business.
- Other OEMs, suppliers also have to pay-to-play.
- China’s deals with Airbus and Boeing are only two elements of a national goal for commercial aerospace.
- IP theft and technology transfer big concerns.