Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 7.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws which are implemented with classical flight controls compared with the Embraer E-Jet and Airbus A320 FBW systems last week.
Now we describe alternative FBW approaches, analyzing Boeing’s 777/787 system and Airbus’ A220 system.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 777 and 787 FBW system architecture. Source: Boeing.
Pontifications: Catching up on Odds and Ends-Alaska’s Airbus fleet, first E195-E2 delivery, Boeing’s MAX rebranding question
- Take our Boeing 737 MAX rebranding poll at the end of this post.
Sept. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time to catch up on Odds and Ends.
Alaska Airlines
In its second quarter earnings call and 10Q Securities and Exchange Filing, Alaska Airlines said it was returning one Airbus A319 and two A320s off lease this year and next.
By Scott Hamilton
These airplanes are from its Virgin America acquisition, which introduced the Airbus family into the all-Boeing Alaska mainline operations.
Alaska officials have said several times they are evaluating whether to phase out all Airbuses and return to an all-Boeing fleet, or keep the Airbuses and operate a mixed fleet indefinitely.
I wondered if this was the start of the phase out.
“We are planning to return 1 A319 this year and 2 A320s next year at normal lease expiration,” Brandon Pederson, EVP and CFO of the company, wrote LNA. “This is not part of a broader fleet decision, nor a phase out of the smaller Airbus aircraft. Leases on the remaining 50 A319/A320 aircraft in the fleet have varying maturities through 2025.”
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 30, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we now discuss the flight control laws which are used for Classical flight controls and FBW systems.
Figure 1. The Boeing 737 artificial feel unit operating over right rod increases roller pressure on feel unit cam, by it making displacement of both left and right rods over Elevator Control Quadrant harder (the arrows depict an elevator up command). Source: Boeing.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by Steel or Electrical wire, Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 23, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we now look at practical implementations after discussing the authority of the flight control system last week.
As before we compare the classical 737 system to the A320 FBW system.
Figure 1. The two mechanical control pitch systems of the 737 are visible in the upper left. Each side has a complete system shown at the lower part of the figure (except for the trim which has dual wire sets but one actuator motor/drum). Source: Boeing.
Boeing’s Long Term Cash Flows
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 19, 2019, © Leeham News:Boeing’s long-time priorities, adopted after the 787 program finally was past its troubles, is shareholder value.
Boeing has spent tens of billions of dollars over the years in stock buybacks. It has regularly increased dividend payments.
In the context of a global aviation boom, the Commercial Airplanes division has generated the bulk of cash flow growth in recent years for the company. The creation of Boeing Global Services is a move toward achieving mid-teen margins for The Boeing Co.
Just like any aircraft OEM, the ability to generate cash flows rests on having an up-to-date and desirable product line up for customers.
Before the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 MAX crash, things were looking good for Boeing. Assuming a successful resolution of the 737 MAX crisis, Boeing should return to generating strong operating cash flows afterward.
However, how long is the current product line up expected to sustain those cash flows and what could Boeing do about it?
Summary
- Dreamliner: from costly delays to cash flow machine
- Boeing 777 provided strong cash flows at critical time and 737 rode global aviation boom until grounding
- Significant production gaps on 737, 777 and 787 appear from mid 2020s, potentially threatening cash flow generation
- New variants, derivatives and clean sheet design would sustain cash flows longer.
Read more
Will the A220 drive the trans-Atlantic fragmentation to smaller jets? Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 15, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Airbus is increasing the Gross Weight of its A220 variants by 5,000lb from 2H2020. It is to increase the already long range of the aircraft according to Airbus.
We looked at the typical trans-Atlantic routes this longer-range capability enabled last week. Now we explore further route areas and compare the A220 economics to the Boeing 737-8 and Airbus A321LR.
Summary:
- Last week we saw the A220 could open trans-Atlantic routes from West Europe to East Canada and North-East US.
- This week we explore further alternatives and explore the economics of the A220 as an aircraft for long and thin routes.
Pontifications: Muilenburg reaffirms MAX hopes, NMA ambiguity and 777X delay
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg so far is sticking to a previously timeline in which the company expects to turn over to the Federal Aviation Administration next month the software fixes for the 737 MAX.
He continues to hope that this results in the lifting of the FAA’s grounding order and return to service (RTS) in the early fourth quarter.
He also sticks to the long-offered entry-into-service timeline of 2025 (though previously indicated there could be some slippage) if Boeing proceeds with the New Midmarket Aircraft, for which the business case still hasn’t closed.
And finally, he reaffirmed that first flight of the 777X will slip to early next year.
He made the remarks Aug. 7 during an appearance of a Jeffries Co. investors conference.
None of this was news, actually. All had been discussed on the July 27 2Q2019 earnings call. But this all served as a reaffirmation for the MAX information, where things are so fluid that new information sometimes emerges day after day.
Will the A220 drive the trans-Atlantic fragmentation to smaller jets?
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
August 8, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Airbus announced a hike of the Gross Weight of the A220 by 5,000lb at the Paris Air Show in June. It will be available for aircraft delivered from 2H2020.
“It was at the request of Customers, they wanted more range” said Rob Dewar, Head of Engineering & Customer Support for the A220, when we talked after the announcement. Will these customers use the capability to cross the Atlantic, driving the long-range fragmentation to ever-smaller cabins? Does it make economic sense compared to an A321LR or a 737 MAX 8? We check with our performance model.
Summary:
- The A220s have enough range to cover interesting parts of East US and West Europe with the increased Maximum Takeoff Weights.
- The key question is; how economical will they be compared to Boeing’s 737 MAX 8 and Airbus A321LR.
Survey split on MAX return to service: December to March
Aug. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: It will take Boeing nearly a year to deliver the stored 737 MAXes if the airplane returns to service in November, according to a new analysis by Bernstein Research.
Boeing 737 MAX jets grounded. Seattle Times photo.
In an Aug. 5 research note, Bernstein reported the results of an investors’ survey and forecast the ramp-up of production next year to rate 57/mo, something Boeing had hoped to achieve last June before the MAX grounding upset all plans.
In the survey, Bernstein reported it expects the MAX return to service in November.
Boeing faces weak sales, production gap for 777X
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Now open to all readers.
Aug. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Design issues with the giant General Electric Aviation GE9X are causing untimely headaches for the Boeing 777X program, at a time when the 737 MAX is consuming the company.
The MAX grounding and longer-than-expected fixes and Return to Service (RTS) is overshadowing challenges with the 787 skyline, where a production rate of 14/mo is burning through the backlog faster than new orders are coming in.
The 777X is facing skyline challenges as well. Sales have been slow. One major customer in the Middle East is undergoing a financial and fleet restructuring and another publicly said it will reduce 777X orders if it places a new order for 787-10s.
The 777X delivery schedule has slid to the right due to the engine issues and the 777-8 is a niche airplane that may have a greater future as a freighter than it does as a passenger model.