Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Preferred 737 MAX return to service timeline for Airlines
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing sorts out final requirements with regulators for the 737 MAX return to service, preparations to resume deliveries are in full steam.
The company is hiring scores of temporary workers to return grounded and built but not yet delivered airframes. A note from Alliance Bernstein estimates that Boeing will be able to hand over 25 aircraft per month on top of those that come off the assembly line.
After taking hefty losses and having lost its most robust cash flow source for almost a year, Boeing will want to hand over as many aircraft to airlines as fast as possible.
Do all 737 MAX customers, likewise, want their aircraft back in service as soon as possible?
Summary
- National regulators will drive return to service timeline;
- Passenger demand variations;
- 737 MAX exposure by region;
- Demand peaks might dictate who flies first;
- Maintenance, compensation, and other considerations.
Pontifications: To no surprise, MAX was major topic at 3 NYC events
- Media, Twitter go mad over text messages.
- Recertifying MAX now looks like December or January.
- Boeing’s initial compensation offers.
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: New York: The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX was expected to be a hot topic of conversation on the sidelines of the Wings Club event here Friday as well as two aviation conferences in town at the same time.
And it was.
How long would the grounding last? What’s the long-term impact on MAX values? How many cancellations might there be?
And then the media frenzy began and the Twittersphere went wild.
Reuters reported that a pilot at Boeing experienced, in 2016—two years before the Lion Air crash—the symptoms of a runaway MCAS in a simulator.
737 MAX special report
Oct. 16, 2019: AlJazeera produced a 30 minute special report on the Boeing 737 MAX.
Unlike the hour-long hit piece on the 787 several years ago, undertaken with questionable tactics, this one is well done.
See the report below.
Pontifications: Muilenburg loses chairman’s title; are his days numbered?
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Look for Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg to leave in 2020.
At least this is my view.
But some aerospace analysts I spoke with over the weekend are split. Some believe Friday’s action by the Boeing Board of Directors “stripping” (as most media headlines and stories positioned it) the chairman’s title from Muilenburg, while his retaining the president and CEO titles, is the first step in easing him out the door next year. This is my view, too.
Muilenburg also remains on the Board.
Others think handing the non-executive chairman’s title to lead director David Calhoun is actually an effort to save Muilenburg’s job.
Here’s the divergent thinking. None of the analysts wanted to be identified because by investment bank policy, their remarks hadn’t been cleared for quotation and none had yet issued research notes in reaction.
The time for a 767RE passenger model has come and gone
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Introduction
Oct. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing is reconsidering a previous idea to re-engine the 767 with GEnx powerplants, Flight Global reported last week.
The idea was run up the flagpole, so-to-speak, in 2017.
Boeing 747-400. Source: Delta Air Lines.
At that time, the 737 MAX was just entering service. There was, of course, no hint of any turbulence on the horizon.
The business case for the New Midmarket Aircraft was difficult even then. So why not look at a 767RE and restarting the 757 line, also up upgrades?
Boeing being Boeing, it looks at everything. It ruled out restarting the 757 line (the challenges would have been pretty daunting).
The 767 got more studious traction, including simply restarting the passenger line and providing a really cheap acquisition. A 767RE, however, was viewed as too complex under the circumstances and it would compete with the 787.
American Airlines and United Airlines were actually interested in the airplane restart.
Summary
- B767F-RE may be to counter A330-900F approach to a major cargo airline.
- B767P-RE likely would be met favorably–by Airbus.
- Re-engining 767 repeats 737RE experience.
JATR study “damning” to Boeing, FAA, New York Times says
Oct. 11, 2019: The international study group that was named to examine the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX and the MCAS system was issued 
today.
The New York Times obtained an advance copy. It wrote that the study is “damning” to Boeing and the FAA.
LNA now has the full study. It may be downloaded here: Final_JATR_Submittal_to_FAA_Oct_2019.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 12
October 11, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we continue our discussion of pitch stability augmentation systems when we have a mechanical (“fly by steel wire”) pitch control system.
Figure 1. The typical pitch moment curve of a modern airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Boeing’s 737 in another pickle, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 8, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The FAA Air Worthiness Directive (AD) for high time Boeing 737 NGs regarding cracked rear pickle forks was issued Thursday last week.
Boeing had a call with 737 NG operators today giving the latest information regarding the cracks. Of the 500 first inspected aircraft, 5% had cracks. These aircraft are now grounded. Boeing is setting up repair lines with the US line starting work on the first NG this week. The expected repair time is three weeks for the first aircraft.
Figure 1. The rear pickle forks carrying the main loads from the wing to the fuselage crack near the rear wing spar. Source: Leeham Co.
Pontifications: Muilenburg’s departure wouldn’t go far enough
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: A recent call for Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg by my friend Ernie Arvai to resign or be removed has a litany of woes at the company that occurred under the CEO.
These mostly relate to the 737 MAX crisis, but also include the policy of returning free cash flow to shareholders rather than investing in new airplanes. Other issues are also cited.
Arvai makes many good points, but he doesn’t go far enough.
If Muilenburg deserves to go, so does Greg Smith, the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Enterprise Performance & Strategy.
The emphasis on cost control, which have become part of the focus of the MAX development, emanates from Smith. The strategy for new products ultimately falls under Smith, who vehemently opposes investment in the New Midmarket Airplane.
If these two deserve to go, so do the Board of Directors.
It’s the Board of Directors who set the shareholders’ value policy that Muilenburg carries out.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 11
October 4, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we now discuss pitch stability augmentation systems when we need to improve the pitch characteristics of a mechanical (“fly by steel wire”) pitch control system.
Figure 1. The pitch moment curve of a modern airliner when circling before landing. Source: Leeham Co.