Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Pontification: A320 production challenges may extend to 2022/23
By Scott Hamilton
- Update of Boeing 737 NG Pickle Fork cracking issues.
Dec. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus sees struggles for A320 production continuing throughout next year, into 2021 and spilling into 2022/23 as the Air Space cabin is introduced on the A321XLR.
Executives also see lower margins than the target 15% for the A350 and losses on the A220 continuing into the middle of the next decade.
Even so, profit targets are expected to be met and officials still want to ramp up production rates on the A320.
This mixed picture was presented by Airbus CFO Dominik Asam during series of investors meetings last month in Asia, arranged by Citi Research’s London office.
In a research note issued Nov. 22, Citi summarized the three days of meetings with investors in Australia, New Zealand and Tokyo.
FAA assumes MAX inspections, won’t slow deliveries, agency says
Boeing photo.
Nov. 29, 2019, © Leeham News: The decision by the Federal Aviation Administration this week to assume inspections of Boeing’s 737 MAXes before delivery won’t delay the company’s projected schedule, once the airplane is recertified.
The FAA Wednesday notified Boeing that federal inspectors will examine each of the hundreds of MAXes that have been built but stored since the March 13 grounding order before the airplanes can be delivered.
Boeing historically had this authority as designated representatives of the FAA.
The decision raised questions whether this would slow the delivery schedule Boeing plans.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 5.
November 29, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We continue the series about the Lion Air JT610 crash by now analyzing the final part of the flight.
We try to understand what changed when the First Officer took over the flying from the Captain and why the aircraft subsequently crashed.
Converting customers to the FSA
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing works its way through the 737 MAX crisis, all consideration whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is on hold.
But the Boeing sales force has been testing the market with a single-aisle concept, the Future Small Airplane (FSA) to replace the MAX.
This highly confidential effort has been underway for months. Some lessors have been approached to swap some MAX orders for the FSA—there was a supply-demand imbalance for lessor-ordered MAXes even before the grounding—and airlines across the globe have been approached to gauge interest.
Summary
- Solving a lessor placement headache;
- Older 737 NG replacement;
- Accommodating airlines that over-ordered;
- Brand new (non) metal for old carriers.
Looking beyond MAX
Nov. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing still doesn’t have a timeline for recertification of the 737 MAX and the Federal Aviation Administration isn’t going to be rushed, but aerospace analysts are increasingly looking beyond the grounding at a normalized Boeing.
It will be well into 2021 before Boeing clears the inventory of MAXes.
Nevertheless, analysts see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel, hoping that it isn’t an oncoming train.
Boeing quietly rolled out the 737-10 MAX last week in an employee-only event. The 10 MAX is the last of the long line of 737s that began with the -100 model in 1967. It had a capacity for 110 passengers. The 10 MAX can seat 220 passengers. Boeing photo.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 4.
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 22, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We continue the series on analyzing the Lion Air JT610 crash by analyzing MCAS in more depth before we go to the final part of the flight.
We look at what was wrong with the initial version of MCAS, the augmentation system that caused JT610 to crash and what has changed in the updated version. Read more
Pontifications: A new setback for Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing suffered another setback last week, and this time it’s unrelated to the 737 MAX.
Boeing abandoned a robotic riveting/fastener system awkwardly called Fuselage Automatic Upright Build, or FAUB, intended to speed production.
Bloomberg first reported the abandonment. The Seattle Times has an extensive story detailing the history and objectives.
Doing these processes manually is incredibly labor intensive. FAUB, when it works, dramatically cuts the time, improves the accuracy and reduces injuries.
FAUB is but one element of a production transformation Boeing has been doing for years under the code name Black Diamond.
Converging technologies in NMA
Various automated and digital processes technologies have been in place on various 7-Series programs for years. FAUB, as The Seattle Times reported, was added to the 777 Classic line ab0ut six years ago. Part of the mission was to de-risk FAUB for application to the 777X.
Then, FAUB and the other processes were to converge for the first time on one Boeing Commercial Airplanes program with the New Midmarket Airplane, or NMA.
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said on several earnings calls that the NMA was as much about production as it was about a new airplane program (or words to this effect).
But Boeing couldn’t make FAUB work.
Why not?
This is a good question and one for which there isn’t a clear answer.
It works elsewhere
FAUB, or a system very similar, is used by Airbus and other aerospace companies. It works for them, says Jessica Kinman, a senior manager for Dassault Systemes.
Kinman spoke Friday at a seminar sponsored by the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) at North Seattle College about advanced manufacturing and other transformative production processes. This was just two days after the Boeing FAUB news broke.
Among the processes illustrated: robotics working on an upright fuselage. In other words, FAUB—although this was not identified as Boeing’s FAUB.
With the NMA business plan relying in part on Black Diamond processes, of which FAUB is an element, losing FAUB isn’t going to help an already-struggling business case.
But, then, NMA is on hold at Boeing until the MAX returns to service and cash flow resumes. So, from this perspective, losing FAUB at this time isn’t especially critical.
Longer term
But longer term, Boeing needs to understand why it couldn’t make FAUB work whereas Airbus and others can.
It’s all part of the digital factory Dassault and its competitors consult on as aerospace (and other industries) transform in the future.
I’ll have more about this in a subsequent post.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 3.
November 15, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We continue the series on analyzing the Lion Air JT610 crash. We now analyze the initial part of the flight. In the last Corner, we analyzed what went wrong in the aircraft. The left Angle of Attack sensor had a 21° bias failure.
How such a rather limited failure could bring a new Boeing 737 MAX down is what we try to understand in this series. To assist us, we have a detailed final accident report from the Indonesian Safety Board.
Wall Street rewards Boeing with December MAX delivery forecast
Nov. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: Wall Street rewarded Boeing with a $15 spike in its share price after the company said it expects the recertification of the 737 MAX and the first deliveries to begin in December.
Boeing photo.
Actual return to service is not expected until January, following pilot training, Boeing said.
“Boeing rallied 4.5% today in a slightly down market after the company outlined the remaining milestones for the 737 MAX’s return to commercial service,” JP Morgan’s aerospace analyst wrote in a note after the close of the market.
“Boeing’s messaging has now caught up to Street expectations, which is that the MAX can return in early 2020, though the company’s timeline still allows for FAA certification and potentially deliveries before year-end.”
Airlines look toward another peak season without the MAX
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Introduction
Nov. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Airlines are beginning to make plans for another peak summer season either without the Boeing 737 MAX in their fleets, or a reduced number.
With the recertification of the MAX continually sliding, like an airline’s creeping delay at the airport, this is stating the obvious. Airlines keep shifting the true return to service (RTS) (not recertification) from 2019 into 1Q2020.
Source: Boeing.
American and Southwest airlines, the two carriers with more MAXes grounded than any other airline, now target RTS March 5 next year—just a week short of the global grounding of the airplane.
Boeing’s chairman, David Calhoun, acknowledged in an interview with CNBC Nov. 5 RTS will now fall into 2021.
This was two days before the Federal Aviation Administration and EASA rejected Boeing’s documentation that is required before recertification is granted. According to media reports, this could add an inconsequential number of days to the process or a significant number of weeks.
Concerns are beginning to emerge that recertification may not come until after the first of the year.
All this increases the uncertainty for the airlines.
Summary
- Creating Plan B—no MAX in the peak season.
- Stored MAXes may face a “calendar” deadline, requiring C Checks before RTS.
- Lessors offering new, year-long leases on A320s and 737 NGs.