Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Bombardier optimistic about China
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Introduction
June 5, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier’s activities in China, where the fuselage for the CSeries is co-produced, have been at a standstill.
None of the Memorandums of Understand or Letters of Intent have been converted to firm
Bombardier Q400.
orders. A recent news report suggested renewed talks between COMAC, China’s commercial aircraft enterprise, and Bombardier over acquisition of the CSeries program
LNC sat down with Fred Cromer, president of Bombardier Commercial Airplanes, at the annual general meeting of IATA to discuss these and other issues.
Summary
- An update on the COMAC-CSeries relationship.
- An update on the slow-selling Q400 and CRJ programs.
- An update on the oft-discussed CS500.
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No new design needed for turboprops, says Bombardier
- Part 1, ATR, appeared last week. Today’s interview with Bombardier completes the two-part series.
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Introduction
April 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier doesn’t think a new, clean-sheet turboprop aircraft is needed any time soon, a position that stands in contrast with rival ATR.
Bombardier Q400.
Ross Mitchell, VP Commercial for BBD, believes the Q400 covers the turboprop segment from 70 to 90 seats and its operational flexibility covers everything airlines need today.
However, ATR has 85% of the backlog with BBD capturing the other 15%.
Still, Mitchell gives a strong defense of the Q400.
Summary:
Don’t believe everything ATR claims about operating cost advantages, BBD says.
BBD can move cockpit and wing production from Canada to lower costs—but where is the question.
Re-engining the Q400 isn’t in the cards, at least any time soon.
Assessing Bombardier commercial programs
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Introduction
Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier hopes to land a major, blue-chip order for its CSeries this year but otherwise isn’t counting on significant orders for its flagship airliner.
Officials don’t have available delivery slots until 2020, bar a few here and there, to attract sizeable orders.
The future of the aging CRJ could get a boost from recalcitrant Us labor unions who refuse to alter the 86,000 lb aircraft weight limit under the Scope Clauses. These make the Embraer E175-E2 and Mitsubishi MRJ90 too heavy for the regional airlines providing contract flying for the US majors.
The future of the Q400 turboprop looks bleak.
Summary
- The CSeries delivery stream appears sufficient to match production ramp up through 2019.
- There is a big production gap in 2020 at the target rate of 10/mo.
- More than 50 firm orders have indefinite deferred delivery dates.
- The backlog for the CRJ “falls off the cliff” next year, as does the Q400.
Pontifications: Hawaiian Air ponders A380
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 31, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Hawaiian Airlines continues to ponder the possibility of acquiring one or two Airbus A380s, its CEO said on the third quarter earnings call—something that raises eyebrows and a lot of questions with industry officials.
Mark Dunkerley, responding to a question on the call, said there are two or three routes that could support the giant A380.
ATR begins US tour, part owner wants to divorce Airbus
ATR is making a push to sell its turbo-props in the US, which is the last exclusive domain of the Bombardier Q400. Note the new forward door on this ATR-72. The absence of this door, which the Q400 has, was a strike against the ATR in the US. The door now enables jetway boarding. Photo via Twitter.
May 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: ATR, the maker of the ATR turbo-prop, is beginning a tour of its aircraft in the US, the last uncontested domain for the rival Bombardier Q400.
ATR won orders for its ATR-42/72 in the US decades ago, but largely ceded the market to Bombardier. ATR-42s fly for FedEx, the express package carrier, but no
ATR-42 operated for FedEx. No passenger ATRs are operated in the USA. Photo via Google images.
passenger ATRs are in service in the USA.
As the tour gets underway, Finmeccania, a 50% owner of ATR with Airbus owning the other half, wants to assume the latter’s holdings if Airbus doesn’t change its mind over its refusal to green light development of a next generation turbo-prop.
Airbus has for several years refused to grant approval because ATR had between 80% and 90% of the backlog at any given time. Bombardier had the remaining market share backlog. Now that oil prices are low, Airbus doesn’t believe a business case can me made to justify a new development.
2017: the year ahead
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Introduction
Jan. 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The New Year is here and it doesn’t look like a good one for commercial aerospace, if measured against previous outstanding years.
There are some troubling signs ahead, piling on to a slowdown in orders from last year that didn’t even reach a 1:1 book:bill.
This year looks to be worse than last. Airbus and Boeing will give their 2017 guidance on the earnings calls this month and next. Bombardier and Embraer earnings calls are a ways off, when each will provide its guidance.
But LNC believes the Big Two in particular will be hard pressed to hit a 1:1 book:bill this year and may even struggle to match 2016 sales.
Boeing’s year-end order tally comes Thursday. Airbus’ comes on Jan. 11.
Summary
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Posted on January 3, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
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Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, GE Aviation, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi