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Second in a Series of Previews for the Paris Air Show.

Introduction

May 10, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Don't expect Boeing to come away from the Paris Air Show next month with a ton of orders. It never does; this is Airbus' home turf.

Although Boeing has said over and over and over again that it doesn't hold back orders to announce at air shows, the fact is that it does, both for its own public relations value and at the behest of customers. Is this as aggressive as Airbus? No, but we know from talking with customers and with Boeing's own personnel that Boeing is just as aware of the air show PR value as is Airbus.

That being said, what can we expect from Boeing at the air show? A little bit here. A little bit there. But not a whole lot. The order cycle has flattened (though it's certainly not collapsed) and the wide-body campaigns that are underway probably won't be ready for Paris.

Summary

• Look for "Unidentifieds" to be revealed to bolster air show numbers, though this will be strictly a PR exercise;
• Watch the 737 MAX 200--so far only Ryanair has ordered this variant;
• Closely watch whether new orders for the 777 Classic are forthcoming; last week's Swiss order, for three, were already accounted for in the Unidentifieds;
• 777 Classic production gap is much larger than generally recognized;
• Don't expect much in the way of 777X orders; there are active campaigns but these probably won't be ready by Paris;
• It's doubtful if there will be many 787 orders; the backlog stream is just too far out to prompt airlines to commit right now; and
• Nothing on the Middle of the Market airplane or (probably) the 747-8I.