Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
Pontifications: Branson gets pissy over dropping the Virgin America name
By Scott Hamilton
April 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Sir Richard Branson came to Seattle last week to promote the new service by Virgin Atlantic Airlines to London. In a hissy-fit, he promptly pissed on Alaska Airlines for the business decision to drop the Virgin America brand in 2019.
Alaska, of course, acquired Virgin America last year. The acquisition didn’t sit well with Branson, who nevertheless made out well in the deal.
Although Alaska officials said they would decide later whether to retain the Virgin brand, only those with wishful thinking gave any chance of this happening.
Richard Branson in Seattle for Virgin Atlantic’s new service to London. USA Today photo via Google.
Branson certainly knows this. In 1997, Virgin Group acquired the low fare carrier Euro Belgium Airlines for $60m and promptly dropped the name in favor of Virgin Express.
VE lasted only nine years; it ceased operations in 2006 when it was sold and merged into the new Brussels Airlines.
Branson’s whining over Alaska’s decision to operate the merged operations into the Eskimo’s image smacks of hypocrisy.
Let’s also remember that his Virgin Atlantic is 49% owned by Delta Air Lines, which is building a hub in Seattle in competition with Alaska. The fight between Alaska and Delta is sometimes bitter.
Branson’s criticism of Alaska might have as much to do with Virgin Atlantic’s partnership with Delta as it does his own bruised ego.
Pontifications: Boeing MAX 10, “797” NMA dominated ISTAT headlines
By Scott Hamilton
March 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The soft launch of the Boeing 737-10 and the prospective Boeing “797” Middle of the Market aircraft easily were the headline news items to come out of the annual ISTAT conference in San Diego last week.
The “797,” as the MOM-sector aircraft was unofficially dubbed, brought enthusiastic reaction.
The MAX 10, not so much.
Pontifications: Boeing 737-9 roll-out–Nothing Special in the Air
By Scott Hamilton
March 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing rolls out its 737-9 MAX tomorrow.
Last week, I received a call from one of the network/cable news organizations asking, What’s special about this airplane?
The answer is: Nothing.
Pontifications: Boeing 777 production rates
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: When Boeing announced it will reduce 777 production to 5/mo, with actual deliveries of the 777 Classic to 3.5/mo beginning in 2018, the aerospace analyst at Goldman Sachs immediately concluded Boeing will have to reduce the rate to 2-2.5/mo.
Since then, and other analysts (whether publicly or privately) reached a similar conclusion.
On the 4Q/YE2016 earnings call in January and again last week at a Barclays conference, company executives said 90% of the positions in 2018 and 2019 are sold.
Shortly after the Barclays conference ended, one analyst called me to challenge the assertion by Greg Smith, Boeing’s CFO, about 2019. By his assessment, the analyst could only get to 60% in 2019. Did I see anything differently?
59% or 74%, but not 90%
At that point, I hadn’t looked. When I did later, I got to 59% based on firm orders. I could get to 74%, giving Boeing every benefit. But I couldn’t get to 90%.
Pontifications: Boeing’s long-term message doesn’t resonate
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s long-term messaging that all is well isn’t resonating with a number of industry analysts and observers.
To be sure, today and in the short-term, Boeing’s stock is on a steady upward trajectory.
But aerospace analysts are not buying into the long-term message.
Neither did three speakers at last week’s annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference in Lynnwood (WA), including me.
Consider:
Pontifications: No rate increase on Boeing 787 predicted
Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing will decide this year whether to boost 787 production to 14/mo from 12/mo by the end of the decade.
I don’t see how this can happen. Neither do several aerospace analysts.
Book:bill sales were just 0.36 in 2014, 0.53 in 2015 and 0.42 in 2016. The last three years saw a book:bill rate average of just 0.43, or an average of 57 airplanes per year.
Boeing is burning off the backlog, not adding to it. At this rate, Boeing won’t be able to sustain rate 12 beyond 2020, let alone boost the rate in 2019.
Not unless there is a plethora of sales this year. This doesn’t seem likely.
Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing single-aisle production rates solid
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The global economy is softening and airlines are deferring airplanes, but we don’t see Airbus or Boeing trimming aircraft production for their single-aisle airplanes.
Over-sales and rising fuel prices support today’s A320 and 737 production rates and the increased rates previously announced by Airbus and Boeing.
While oil prices are low compared with the pre-Great Recession levels, Embraer’s John Slattery noted that fuel costs went up more than 48% last year alone. Fuel now costs more than $50/bbl. West Texas Intermediate Crude was selling at $51.08 Thursday, off $1.40. There will be ups and downs, but the trend is up.
Slattery, the president of Embraer Commercial airplanes, believes “fuel efficient fleets will become more critical in the coming years,” he wrote in a Tweet Jan. 7.
Pontifications: Planes nobody wants
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing continue to offer planes that nobody wants.
Well, almost nobody.
The aircraft remain on the published price lists of both companies, for reasons that passeth understanding. Nobody ordered the aircraft for years.
Pontifications: Boeing’s book:bill shortfall draws market ho-hum
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s falling a little short of a 1:1 book:bill last year was expected and drew a ho-hum from the market.
The stock was up fractionally for the rest of the day after Boeing announced the year-end data at 11 am Eastern time, closing at $159.10.
Airbus announces its full year orders and deliveries Wednesday in a press conference (Boeing only issued a press release).
Pontifications: Embraer, contrary to others, looks to momentum in 2017
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier look toward 2017 as a bit of a punk year, as detailed in our Look Ahead for subscribers only. Not so by Embraer.
In an exclusive interview, John Slattery, the president of Embraer Commercial, said EMB will gain “momentum” this year. This is at a time where sales at the other three of the Big Four OEMs are expected to slow off an already slow 2016.