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Odds and Ends, Post-Paris Air Show 2011

Here are our closing views of the PAS:

Boeing

Boeing did very well at the show. We know the headlines almost universally say Boeing had a bad show (which it didn’t) and was trounced by Airbus (which it was), but people easily overlook comparing Boeing’s performance vs. previous air shows.

Boeing announced more than 140 orders worth some $22bn–about equal to the 2009 Paris Air Show. By anyone’s standards, this ain’t shabby. Boeing often announces low numbers at air shows, claiming it doesn’t hold orders for the shows and Airbus does. We regard this as so much poppycock, because we know customers drive announcements and both Airbus and Boeing hold announcements for air shows at customer requests.

34 Comments

Posted on June 27, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

747-8, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, GE Aviation, GTF, LEAP, Pratt & Whitney

CSeries order intact, says Republic; CFM offered “great incentives” for engine deal

Bombardier’s CSeries order with Republic Airways Holdings, announced today at the Paris Air Show, is intact, says the company spokesman.

Peter Kowalchuk told us late Wednesday (Paris time) that there is no change in the CSeries order, despite the Airbus one announced today for 40 A320neos and 40 A319neos. First delivery, of the A319neo, is in 2016.

The first CSeries is scheduled for delivery in 2015.

6 Comments

Posted on June 22, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Bombardier, CSeries

A320NEO, Airbus, Bombardier, CSeries, Frontier Airlines, Republic Airways

Boeing 737 re-engine studies very much alive

Boeing officials like to downplay the prospect of re-engining the venerable 737, but studies are very much alive as the company tries to figure out what the market wants and how to respond to the Airbus A320neo.

Boeing has shifted focus on re-engine studies despite already having a solution, officials said during a pre-Paris Air Show media briefing.

16 Comments

Posted on June 18, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

737, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Paris Air Show

Paris Air Show outlook

There are several items looking at the Paris Air Show outlook:

AirInsight had a live discussion Friday with Addison Schonland, Richard Aboulafia and Ernie Arvai hosting it. The transcript is here.

AirInsight also published a lengthy written preview of what to expect from all the major airframe and engine OEMs here.

Here’s a short-take on Airbus at the show.

2 Comments

Posted on June 6, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embraer

Paris Air Show

Pre-Paris Air Show discussion and AirInsight preview

AinInsight will host a live pre-Paris Air Show discussion Friday, with guest Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group. Sign up to participate here.

Also look for AirInsight’s Paris Air Show preview next week. We historically have done air show previews here but this year we’re combining our thoughts with our partners, Ernie Arvai and Addison Schonland at AirInsight. AirInsight will go down the airframe and engine OEMs with our outlook for orders and announcements.

Addison and I will be at the air show, providing daily coverage. I’m also attending the Boeing pre-air show briefings this week (with news embargoed to June 19); and the EADS/Airbus media day June 18, at which there will be an A350 briefing that had been scheduled for May 31 but was postponed to the media day.

Just a hint of AirInsight’s preview next week: we’re expecting Airbus to announced and firm up several hundred orders for the A320neo and more A380 orders; Boeing may have some 747-8I orders ready to announce; Bombardier should have more CSeries orders; CFM will get its first LEAP-X orders on the neo (and these will be large numbers) while Pratt & Whitney will continue to add to the GTF book; Embraer won’t announce a new airplane and neither will Boeing; ATR (an EADS company) will have a nice turbo-prop order; and we expect a major announcement from Rolls-Royce.

3 Comments

Posted on June 1, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, EADS, Pratt & Whitney

A350, Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, EADS, Embraer, GTF, LEAP-X, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip

Here are some more photos from our DC-7B trip. All photos by Scott Hamilton.

This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?

3 Comments

Posted on May 31, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney

Douglas DC-7, Eastern Airlines DC-7B, Historical Flight Foundation, Military.com

McNerney’s interesting comments on the new airplane

We’re off hiatus, having completed several projects that now gives us some time to pay attention to this column.

It didn’t seem to get much pickup but on the Boeing 1Q earnings call, CEO Jim McNerney said something on the call that really perked up our ears.

First, some necessary context.

25 Comments

Posted on April 29, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

737, 737RS, 757, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bomardier, CSeries, Embraer

Odds and Ends: Boeing basks in 777 orders as A350 falters

Odds and Ends this week:

Boeing had a good week with 777 orders from a variety of customers, though some were previously unidentified ones that had already been booked. Back in January we predicted that Boeing will see a stream of orders that will justify increased production. Boeing has announced a rate of 8.3 per month and we can reveal it is considering going to 10 per month.
Meanwhile, Airbus confirmed that it faces mounting challenges with the production timeline for the A350. For the moment it is still sticking with the EIS of 2H2013. We fully expect this to slip into 2014. At the moment, our conclusion is that the A350 will be a year late. This may change.
Dominic Gates has this interesting story about Boeing proceeding with a 787-10.
The Air Force Times has an interesting article analyzing the tanker competition.
Airbus and Boeing are engaged in their usual public bickering over the strategies in the A320/737 class. Airbus launched the NEO and claims this provides enough fuel burn reductions to make the program worthwhile. (We think the boost in range to the A320 and A321 have as much to do with the program as anything else.) Airbus is right. Boeing claims re-engining doesn’t provide enough fuel burn benefit to make re-engining worthwhile on a net, all-in cash-on-cash basis to be worthwhile. Boeing makes a good argument on this narrow basis, but this ignores the environmental benefits to re-engining and other factors. Airbus says there isn’t going to be a real convergence of technology until 2025-27 to justify a new airplane. Boeing believes there is enough new technology available to justify a new airplane by 2019. We think they are both right–and both are wrong.
EADS CEO Louis Gallois said the KC-X tanker effort boosted EADS’ standing with the Department of Defense despite losing.
The new PW GTF and CFM LEAP-X engines aren’t in service yet and PW is already working on its next generation GTF and CFM is working on the open rotor. Flight Global has a lengthy story about it.
Aspire Aviation takes a look at Cathay Pacific’s financial results.

14 Comments

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

Airbus, Boeing, EADS, KC-X

Odds and Ends: Boeing to compete production site for new 737-class airplane

Odds and Ends begins below the photo.

We’re not big on photos but every once in a while we find one that we’ve very impressed with–like this (via Airliners.net) at LAX:

16 Comments

Posted on March 7, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

air force tanker, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, CSeries, EADS, Pratt & Whitney

2011 Outlook for Aerospace

Note: this is unusually long, 11 pages when printed.

The new year is here and it is time for our annual look-ahead for the big OEMs.

On a macro level, 2011 should be a good year. Airline passenger and cargo traffic recovery should continue. The global economy also is recovering, but it is almost painfully slow to do so. Still, this is better than some of the alternatives.

Airlines and lessors are likely to continue their order stream that resumed in mid-2010 at the Farnborough Air Show. There could be some key orders that will influence the OEMs and their strategies going forward.

On the military front, we are much more limited in our tracking. We follow the KC-X tanker program because the offerings are based on commercial airliners. We slightly follow the P-8A Poseidon for the same reason, but Boeing pretty much has the monopoly for this type airplane, so there isn’t much to follow.

We do closely follow cybersecurity issues, if for no other reason than it is so important but also because key aerospace companies, including Boeing, have major efforts in this arena.

But by and large, we focus on the OEMs, the emerging competitors and the new engines.

So let’s get to it.

10 Comments

Posted on January 3, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

air force tanker, Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Pratt & Whitney

737, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, AVIC, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM International, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Geared Turbo Fan, GTF, LEAP-X

Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

Leeham News and Analysis

Odds and Ends, Post-Paris Air Show 2011

CSeries order intact, says Republic; CFM offered “great incentives” for engine deal

Boeing 737 re-engine studies very much alive

Paris Air Show outlook

Pre-Paris Air Show discussion and AirInsight preview

Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip

This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?

McNerney’s interesting comments on the new airplane

Odds and Ends: Boeing basks in 777 orders as A350 falters

Odds and Ends: Boeing to compete production site for new 737-class airplane

2011 Outlook for Aerospace

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