Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

There's more to real news than a news release.

CSeries first flight: late August or September (analysis)

We believe the first flight of the Bombardier CSeries is planned for late August or early September, based on the coming flight “in weeks” statements from BBD. We note this is “weeks” rather than “days,” and it is not as ambiguous as “the third [or fourth] quarter.”

BBD said it can’t “pinpoint” a date for first flight, in response to a reporter’s question about the first flight at the end of August or in September.

  • BBD’s second quarter slide presentation is here.

CEO Pierre Beaudoin said on the earnings call that the integration of the APU and engines is running smoothly and software upgrades are being upgraded but is taking longer than anticipated. He said first flight is to be in “coming weeks.”

During the Q&A, BBD said “nothing has changed as far as entry into service” despite previous statements that the flight test program would take 12 months, and this timeframe was reiterated. So this certainly suggests EIS slips from mid-2014 to late third quarter at the earliest. (Some analysts yesterday slipped the EIS to early 2015 and we tend to agree.)

BBD would not comment on the possible impact the delays will have on compensation coming.

The company also said that the “earned value” of tests were not quite as anticipated, citing an example of wiring being stalled upside down that requires up to two days to fix rather than a half-day for the anticipated testing.

“The test for the first Flight Test Vehicle is much more intense than for the next FTVs, so it takes a lot more time,” BBD said. “This is the first time…we’re learning.”

The flight test program will have five CS100s and two CS300s and additional tests with the first couple of production airplanes.

“We’ll adjust as we need to adjust [the flight test schedule of 12 months” depending on what emerges.

Embraer’s E2 program begins in the regional arena and comes up into the CSeries arena, and EIS is from 2018 and it is a derivative, Bombardier noted.

“We have two very good products in a unique market. The airlines say they have a need for a smaller airplane with seat costs for the larger airplanes, and the A319 and 737 [700/7] do not do,” the company said.

 8 Comments

 Posted on August 1, 2013 by

 Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Bombardier CSeries first flight target: still in “coming weeks”

Bombardier announced its second quarter financial results today and repeated in its press release the first flight of its CSeries will be in “the coming weeks.”

News articles are here and here.

An earnings call is at 10 am EDT today.

A Bombardier official yesterday said the entry-into-service, slated for mid-2014, will be “reassessed” after first flight. BBD in the past had pretty much planned one year for EIS after first flight. We’re going to predict this will slip to early 2015 now.

  • Separately, Bloomberg News has a story about how Bombardier is facing pricing pressure from Embraer. This puts BBD in a squeeze between EMB at the bottom and Airbus above; we’ve written several posts about the Airbus pricing in A319/A320 competition against CSeries.

 6 Comments

 Posted on August 1, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Odds and Ends: CSeries first flight delayed into August; Boeing 2Q profit; 787 future; LHR fire solution

CSeries First Flight: Bombardier announced today that the first flight of the CSeries has slipped into August. Here is the press release.

Boeing 2Q profit: Boeing reported a solid profit in the second quarter, with increased cash flow as 787s deliver. Impact of 787 grounding (primarily a first quarter event) minimal. Here is the press release.

787 future: Bloomberg News takes a look at the history of bad PR surrounding the Boeing 787 and the future reputation of the airplane.

London Heathrow fire solution: Investigators appear to have solved the cause of the London Heathrow fire on the Ethiopian 787: shoddy installation of the Electronic Locator Beacon. The Seattle Times has this update. Bloomberg earlier reported the investigation was focusing on pinched wires. Reuters was the first to report the pinched wire theory. This is good news for Boeing: it wasn’t the plane’s fault.

 31 Comments

 Posted on July 24, 2013 by

 Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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It’s official: Boeing launches 787-10 with 102 orders, commitments

Here’s the Boeing press release.

Boeing expects the 787-10 to perhaps be the best selling model of the family over time. With a range of 7,000nm, it will have the ability to do most airline missions; 8,000nm-8,500nm range airplanes (let alone the proposed 9,400nm range of the 777X) is really more than most carriers need. We expect the orders to double by the end of the year.

In other Paris Air Show news, easyJet chose to stay with Airbus for its fleet renewal ordering a combination of 35 A320ceos and 100 neos. This was hard-fought competition. Boeing thought it won the deal on price, and Bombardier was ready to go with its own contract when Airbus came in at the last minute with a low price of its own, blowing both competitors out of the water.

Bombardier: This story explains in part why Bombardier has been challenged in selling the CSeries. The US Scope Clause inhibits sales to regional airlines; and lessors want to see a broader customer base. This is in addition to Airbus under-pricing Bombardier in key campaigns to block sales.

ATR landed an order for up to 90 ATR-72-600s.

Boeing will market the Embraer KC-390 to the Pentagon. After all the Boeing campaign about the Pentagon buying a foreign airplane for a tanker, this really takes the cake.

 51 Comments

 Posted on June 18, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Paris Air Show Day 1

UBS has this easy-to-read Table of the orders and commitments announced on Day 1 of the Paris Air Show:

UBS Paris 2013 Day 1

The big news, of course, is the launch of the Embraer E-175/190/195 “E2” (second generation). The press release is here.

Embraer Rendering

Airbus scored an unexpected order for the A380: 20 from specialty lessor Doric Leasing, which has financed a number of A380s. We think this is an odd deal, and it must be one that already has some A380 customers lined up.

Tomorrow is expected to be the day Boeing launches the 787-10, so it should be Boeing’s day. We also believe tomorrow will be the day Airbus does a fly by of the A350 XWB. A little tit-for-tat, perhaps.

 20 Comments

 Posted on June 17, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Paris Air Show news begins from Sunday; some details on EMB revamp emerge

The Paris Air Show doesn’t start until tomorrow, but news is already being made. A sampling:

Airbus

Airbus battles for supremacy in twin-aisle sector

Hundreds of orders seen this week

Airbus seen pulling ahead in easyJet race

Boeing

787 issues just a spot of turbulence

China set to become world’s third aircraft maker

GE pushes envelope with GE9X for 777X

Unrelated to the show: SC ponies up even more money. Washington State needs to do something to remain competitive. Washington has this presence at the Air Show.

Bombardier

Size matters, in reverse

First flight prep and FTV 2 progress

Expectations at the air show

Embraer

Revamped E-Jet launch at the air show

 14 Comments

 Posted on June 16, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Odds and Ends: Crowded airplanes; A350 first flight; Air France to firm A350 order

Crowded airplanes: USA Today has an article discussing today’s crowded airplanes. It’s going to get worse. Airbus is offering a configuration for the A380 that has 11 abreast in coach. Boeing says most airlines are now selecting 10 abreast for the 777. Most customers are choosing nine abreast for the 787. Gone are the days when the center seat had good odds of being empty. This is why Bombardier designed its CSeries wit a 19 inch center seat, the widest in the industry.

A350 first flight: Thursday at 10am Toulouse time.

Air France and A350: Several reports indicate Air France will at long last firm up its order for the A350 at the Paris Air Show. It has been held up over maintenance contract issues with Rolls-Royce.

 

 47 Comments

 Posted on June 10, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Countdown to first flights for A350, CSeries

Lots of news stories as we countdown to first flight of the Airbus A350 and Bombardier CSeries.

Airbus

Eyes on A350: Wired

A350 nears first flight: Wall Street Journal

Taking on Boeing: AFP via Industry Week

A350 flight test detail: Aviation Week

Bombardier

Challenges f0r EIS, Bloomberg News

First flight imminent but hurdles remain: Toronto Star

CSeries on Track: via Airwise.com

 35 Comments

 Posted on June 8, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Odds and Ends: Boeing jobs move; JetBlue’s trans-con plan; Airbus Innovation Days; BBD confidence

Boeing jobs move: We’re not a fan of Loren Thompson, but his commentary in Forbes yesterday is spot on. Boeing is moving jobs out of Washington State to bolster its Charleston (SC) cluster and simply to move to non-union locations.

Washington State needs to come up with some real planning to address the competitiveness in relation to the South. So far, what’s been unveiled is more of the same–there’s no innovation. This isn’t going to work.

JetBlue’s trans-con plan: The US discount carrier said it was contemplating two-class service across the USA. A filing reveals what it was thinking (with a tip to Mary Kirby on this one). What surprises us more than anything is the low density planned in the Airbus A321: just 156 seats. JetBlue’s single-class A320 has 150 seats. Strikes us that JBLU is leaving a lot of potential revenue behind.

Airbus Innovation Days: AirInsight went to the Airbus Innovation Days this week and has a number of postings here.

Here are some more stories coming out of the Airbus days:

Financial Times

Reuters

Bombardier says CSeries is a “done deal.” Meaning no more delays. This is a pretty bold statement, given the history at Airbus and Boeing. The Reuters story reports the confidence at BBD, but from a pizzazz perspective, it still seems unlikely the CSeries will fly during the show. In the firmest indication yet, it now looks like the first flight will be the last week of June.

11 Abreast on the A380: Not for me.

787-10 Will be marketing “disaster.” So says John Leahy in this article** (all the way at the bottom). That’s not at all what we are hearing from the potential customers we talk to. Lessors and airlines alike look forward to the airplane. Leahy compares the 787-10 with the 767-400, which was a marketing disaster–only two airlines, Delta and Continental–bought the airplane. Both found a workable niche for it, but the 787-10 is no 767-400. With range of 7,000nm, it will have 82% of the mission range of the 8,500nm 787-9, A350 (and A380), it matches the A330-200 HGW, exceeds the 6,000 nm range of the A330-300 HGW and nearly matches the 7,200 nm range of the early 787-8s–with nominally 323 seats, the size of the 777-200ER and the A350-900.

** Readers may have to go to Google News and type in headline “Stretch Version of A380 still far off”

or try this URL directly

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/stretch-version-of-a380-still-far-off-says-airbus-chief-john-leahy/story-e6frg95x-1226658853394

 23 Comments

 Posted on June 7, 2013 by

 Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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To paint or not to paint, that is the question

To paint or not: We’re in Chicago for an industry event called Chi-Stat (essentially a big party) and one of the topics of discussion is whether Bombardier should take a few days out of its test schedule to paint CSeries Flight Test Vehicle 1 in advance of the first flight.

Yes, one side says, even if it means delaying the flight a few days into July. The world wide photos of first flight is worth painting the airplane. No, the other side says: Bombardier is focused on maintaining schedule. We were a bit surprised at the time of the “reveal” in March that the airplane had not been painted then. There was no roll-out because BBD didn’t want to break the schedule. Officials are very focused on breaking the recent history of Airbus and Boeing delays and to not add to the six month delay already built into the CSeries program.

What do you think?

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Here are a couple of BBD items:

Montreal Gazette

Belfast Telegraph

 

 31 Comments

 Posted on June 6, 2013 by

 Bombardier, CSeries

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