Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

There's more to real news than a news release.

PW mum about reported thrust bump on GTF

Sylvain Faust, who follows the Bombardier CSeries more closely than anyone else we know except the program participants, last night posted a piece that says the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine now in testing with the CSeries is up to 25,000 lbs of thrust–a 9.3% increase. The thrust bump is more geared toward take-off performance than economy, Faust reports. The CS100 is a short-field, hot-and-high airplane, among its other attributes.

Pratt & Whitney declined to comment directly on Faust’s report.

“Pratt & Whitney is on track to meet the PW1500G engine commitments made to customers on entry into service. Our focus remains on successfully supporting Bombardier in the completion of aircraft certification testing and meeting all of our performance commitments on schedule,” a spokeswoman said.

Meanwhile, Bombardier posted a short video update on the program.

 12 Comments

 Posted on May 13, 2014 by

 Bombardier, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

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Odds and Ends: Cockpit changes in the 777X; CSeries test progress; order bubble; MH370

Cockpit changes in 777X: Aviation Week has a detailed article about changes in the cockpit for the Boeing 777X, including displays and its fly-by-wire system. The changes enable a common type rating with the 787, according to Aviation Week. Along with changes planned for the cockpit of the 737 MAX, Boeing is moving toward the Airbus philosophy of common cockpits throughout the family line, a feature that Airbus was able to adopt having been able to start from scratch with its airplane families while Boeing was more constrained, having airplanes that spanned decades.

Airbus has used the common cockpit approach as a key element of its sales campaigns.

CSeries test progress: Bombardier’s CSeries flight testing has cleared flight envelope extremes, according to Flight Global.

Order bubble? There is a perpetual question whether there is an order bubble in which airlines have over-ordered airplanes from the Big Two. (The Smaller Two don’t seem to count in the debate.) David Strauss of UBS has long believed this to be the case. Ascend consultancy will have a webinar May 22 to discuss this issue.

MH370: The Wall Street Journal reports that some investigators now have doubts about the validity of the pings detected in the search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370.

 35 Comments

 Posted on May 12, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Odds and Ends: Snookered by Boeing; Superman; Me2Al; Odyssey Airlines

Snookered by Boeing: That’s how one legislator in Washington State put it in the outcry aftermath of Boeing moving engineering jobs out of state despite an $8.7bn set of tax breaks to land the 777X wing production and assembly site here. She went on to say she wouldn’t have voted for the breaks had she known, and she’s so tired of Boeing.

Sound similar to what legislators said after voting for the $3.7bn in tax breaks in 2003 to land the 787 assembly line. Six years later Boeing put 787 Line 2 in Charleston, revealing that the State had failed to add strings to that set of tax breaks to assure all 787 assembly would be done here.

Snookered then and snookered now. What strikes us is that any legislator thought anything different would happen.

Boeing’s job strategy has been very, very clear for years: move engineering, IT and other non-touch labor jobs out of Washington as fast as it can. Move component work out of Washington. And for the 777X assembly work: can you say “robotics”?

IAM 751, the touch-labor union, claimed all along Boeing was snookering membership and the State of Washington and was going to assemble the 777X here anyway, regardless of the contract vote and state incentives (we disagreed, but only McNerney knows for sure).

Washington needs to get used to Boeing moving jobs (hence, our continued refrain of look Beyond Boeing). Aside from Chicago’s long-obvious job transfer plan, robotics and automation will, over time, take an increasingly prominent role in building airplanes. Boeing has been introducing robotics on the 777 Classic line, so expanding this use should be expected.

Superman: This video shows a Boeing 737 being pushed sideways at the gate by strong winds and an icing ramp. The most amazing part of this amazing video is the ramp worker who is trying to stop the airplane. It seems the rampie thinks he can bench press 150,000 lbs.

Me2Al: He’s widely known as U-Turn Al for his propensity to do 180 degrees multiple times on his opinions about airplanes, engines and orders, but now Akbar Al-Baker is becoming Me2Al as well. Long envious of Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airlines, Al-Baker hooked his wagon to Clark on the 777X last year at the Dubai Air Show, claiming the two carriers negotiated similar specifications at the same time to get a better deal from Boeing.

Now he’s followed Clark’s lead once again, this time jumping on the prospect of the Airbus A380neo.

Odyssey reveals some details: Odyssey Airlines, the business-class start-up carrier that is building its business plan around the Bombardier CSeries, revealed a little bit of its plans in this article. It will have 40 lie-flat seats on the CS100, operate from London City Airport (previously known) and its funding is partially revealed.

Great B-17 Photos: See The Seattle Times montage here.

 17 Comments

 Posted on May 6, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, IAM 751, International Association of Machinists

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CSeries FTV 4 to launch this month with PW GTF testing focus

Bombardier’s CSeries flight testing has now passed the 250 hour flight mark, with three Fight Test Vehicles (FTVs) in the program. FTV 4 is due to become airborne in May. This will be a milestone for the program because this is the airplane that will focus on the performance of the Pratt & Whitney P1000G Pure Power engine that is so integral to the development of Bombardier’s leap into the mainline jet business.

When BBD first proposed aircraft in the 110-130 seat sector, the C110 and C130, in 2004, this was “just another airplane:” little new in the way of airframe technology and using engines then in production. Withdrawn from the market after little interest, BBD revised the airplane into the CS100 and CS300, using an aluminum lithium fuselage and PW’s new Geared Turbo Fan engine.

The GTF promises around 15%-16% fuel consumption reduction and a dramatic decrease in noise footprints. While BBD has gained knowledge of how the GTF is performing from the first three FTVs, No. 4 will be the one that will prove whether all the engineering projections for the engines are correct and whether the engine/airframe combination will meet BBD’s promises of fuel efficiency.

Bombardier also hopes that meeting these representations will get a few customers that have been in the “show me” column to become believers. Disappointed with three program delays that have moved entry-into-service back to the second half of next year, potential customers need some solid results.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for BBD. The CSeries promises quieter operations at especially noise-sensitive airports, including Billy Bishop Airport in BBD’s own backyard in Toronto. Porter Airlines has a conditional order for up to 30 CS100s for use at this downtown airport, and the promised quiet operation is key to government approval to allow commercial jet operations there. This isn’t the only noise-sensitive airport.

Bombardier promotes its CSeries as being more economical than the competing Airbus A319neo and Boeing 737-7 MAX, and our analysis concurs. Sales figures also support BBD: the CS300 has far outsold the A319neo and 737-7.

For Pratt & Whitney, this is the beginning of the end of more than 25 years of research and development of the Geared Turbo Fan, a multi-billion dollar bet to return to the commercial airline engine market it once dominated but lost to rival CFM International when the latter won exclusive rights to power what is now referred to as the Boeing 737 Classic, rights that continue through the 737 MAX.

PW’s bet to return paid off. More than 5,000 GTFs have been sold on the CSeries, the Mitsubishi MRJ and Embraer E-Jet E2, on all of which it is the exclusive power plant; and it has evenly split the market on the A320neo family, on which it competes with CFM and its LEAP engine.

The industry keenly awaits flight test results from BBD’s FTV 4.

 10 Comments

 Posted on May 5, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney

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OEMs are ramping up services as profit centers

Original Equipment Manufacturers are ramping up their focus on services to increase these as profit centers for company financial performance.

The news April 10 that Boeing will relocate its Commercial Aviation Services unit from Seattle to its fading facility in Long Beach (CA) is another example. After-market support services for all DC- and MD- models and the out-of-production 7 Series airplanes previously were relocated to Southern California. Now, support for the in-production 7 Series (except the 787), the 737-based P-8A Poseidon and the forthcoming KC-46A will shift to SoCal. The 787, 737 MAX and forthcoming 777X support will be in Seattle.

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 Posted on April 21, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Douglas Aircraft Co, GE Aviation, McDonnell Douglas, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

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Bridging the gap from E-Jet E1 to E2

Facing a production gap of a year of more between today’s in-production airplane and the entry-into-service of its new model, Embraer is confident it can bridge this gap with little difficulty.

 

Bundling orders of the E-Jet E1 with the re-engined, re-winged E-Jet E2 will be one way, Claudio Camelier, vice president of market intelligence, told us during the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading conference in San Diego.

 

Chief Commercial Officer John Slattery told us he’s charged his sales force to pursue aggressive sales campaigns to add to the customer base, not only with new aircraft but also with used ones, to 100 by EIS of the E-190 E2 in the first half of 2018.

 

Sales last year to American Airlines, United Airlines and Republic Airways Holdings were important steps in bridging the production gap, Camelier told us. These three companies ordered 177 E-175 E1s, ending 2013 with a stronger position than EMB started the year with. EMB currently produces the E-Jet at a rate of about eight per month, a figure that will be more-or-less maintained for the foreseeable future.

 

EMB began this year with orders for 25 E-190 E2s and 25 E-195 E2s from India’s Air Costa. A stiff campaign with Bombardier at Air Canada faces off the E2 with the CS300, a contest that many expect will be decided by mid-year, perhaps in time for the Farnborough Air Show. The E2 has a common cockpit with the E1, but the engines, wings, many systems and aerodynamic improvements distinguish the airplanes from each other.

 

Additionally, the E-195 E2 has three more rows for 12 more passengers, putting some more distance between itself and the E-190. The E-190 and E-195 had only an eight passenger difference, resulting in generally slow sales for the E-195; now it’s 20+, a capacity that should make the E-195 E2 more attractive, Camelier told us.

 

The larger capacity is more attractive in Europe, where scope clauses in pilot union contracts have passenger capacity limits of 100-105 vs about 76 seats in the USA, Camelier says.

 

The E-190 E2 is at the end of its first design definition phase and will complete the Preliminary Design Review during the first half of this years.

 4 Comments

 Posted on March 31, 2014 by

 Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Bombardier CSeries program update

Bombardier’s investors day last week covered a lot of ground across its entire business line, including rail, corporate aircraft, as well as commercial aerospace.

The area of most interest, of course, is on the CSeries, the all-new aircraft design that pits BBD for the first time directly against Airbus and Boeing and their small A319ceo, A319neo, 737-700 and 737-7.

The CSeries, in its current iteration, was launched in 2008 with an entry-into-service announced for December 2013. With three subsequent delays, EIS is now slated for the second half of 2015 (the CS100, followed by six months by the larger CS300).

Sales have been slower than desired, both by observers and by some within BBD, though executives say they are satisfied with sales to-date: there are 201 firm orders and 445 orders, options and LOIs, from nearly 20 customers. This compares with the announced goal of 300 firm orders and 20-30 customers by the previous EIS of 4Q2014. BBD has not reset the goal following the new 2015 EIS.

During the investors’ day, no “breaking” news was announced; no new orders were revealed and a broad update of the flight test program was discussed.

Sales campaigns revealed last year continue to be pursued: Monarch Airlines of the UK, Air Canada and, more recently, Ethiopian Airlines. A CSeries sales campaign in Russia, where Bombardier has had success for the CSeries and the Q400, may be sidetracked due to the recent events in Ukraine and selective international sanctions against Russia by the West. BBD already acknowledged its Q400 program in Russia has been affected.

CS100 Flight Test Vehicle 3 entered the program just before the investors’ day. FTV 4, the one that will concentrate on engine testing, had “power on” last week and should enter flight testing soon. FTV 5 follows at an unspecified date, with FTV 6 and 7–the CS300 aircraft–coming thereafter.

The following slides, from presentations at the investors’ day, represent some selected overviews of the BBD discussion.

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 2 Comments

 Posted on March 24, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Bombardier CSeries delays have little impact vs competitors

Bombardier’s third CSeries Flight Test Vehicle finally became airborne March 3. FTV 3 focuses on avionics. FTV 4 will focus on the testing of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine; Bombardier hasn’t announced a date when this airplane will join the test program.

Bombardier’s rescheduled flight test schedule, reflecting a 9-15 month additional delay to entry-into-service (now the second half of 2015), hasn’t been publicly detailed. BBD presents to the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders (ISTAT) at its annual US meeting this week in San Diego, and there is an investors day later in the week. We expect one or both venues to provide program updates.

The new EIS narrows the gap between the CSeries and its competitors, the Airbus A319neo, the Embraer E-190/195 E2 and the Boeing 737-7 MAX. But the impact isn’t significant, in our view. Airbus’ A319neo—the direct competitor to the CS300—was to be the first of the re-engined challengers to the new-design CS300 with an EIS originally set for the first quarter of 2016 (six months after the A320neo EIS of October 2015). But Qatar Airways, the launch customer of the A319neo, dropped this order in favor of the larger A320neo. The A319neo EIS is now slated for the second half of 2017, for Avianca Airlines.

EIS 100-149

 

This means the original two-year gap between the CS300 and the A319neo remains the same, assuming no additional delays for the CSeries and none for the A319neo.

Parenthetically, we are unsure if Frontier Airlines will take its order for 20 A319neos, with first delivery scheduled in 2018. When we talked with CEO David Siegel two years ago, he expressed doubts about taking the airplane, preferring the larger A320 sibling. The only other announced customer is Avianca, with a firm order for nine. Will Avianca ultimately take the A319neo, particularly if Frontier swaps its order? We have our doubts. There is an unannounced customer for the A319neo for eight, according to the Ascend data base, but delivery dates currently are listed as “2500.”

The Embraer E-190 E2 nominally competes with the CS100; it’s barely within the 100-125 seat category in a one-class configuration, while the CS100 is comfortably within this sector. In two classes, the E-190 E2 is an 88 seat aircraft and the CS100 is 100 seats. The CS100 also has more range; arguably these are different classes of aircraft.

The E-195 E2 nominally competes with the CS-300. In one class, the E-195 E2 is a 132 seat airplane, but the CS-300 carriers 145-149 passengers, and as with the CS-100 has longer range. The E-195 E2 is a more direct competitor with the CS-100, but range is shorter and missions may be somewhat different. The EIS for the CSeries vs the E2s still has a gap of 2 ½-3 ½ years, assuming no delays to either program based on the currently announced schedules.

The 737-7 MAX EIS is slated for 2019, about four years after the CS-300.

Thus, we see little impact to Bombardier’s delay from a practical standpoint.

Despite the additional delay, Bombardier hasn’t yet updated its expectations for firm orders and customer numbers. It’s still reporting its goal to have 300 firm orders and 20-30 customers by EIS (previously fall of 2014). Moving the EIS to the right by 9-15 months should implicitly infer higher numbers. Perhaps new targets will be revealed in the program update this week.

 12 Comments

 Posted on March 17, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Odds and Ends: MH370, Day 5; Delta’s RFP

MH370, Day 5: Yesterday brought another round of frenzied media coverage when the Chinese government released satellite images of what might be pieces of the Malaysian 777 in the water, 140 miles west of the last known contact position of flight MH370.

These images were identified as being up to 72 feet long and 52 feet wide. The images were taken Sunday, after the Friday night/Saturday morning disappearance.

We’re skeptical that these things are part of the airplane. They are huge to be floating on the water. Most likely something this big would have sunk.

Further, we simply cannot get past the fact that no debris field of any kind has been seen anywhere along the intended flight path or within broad proximity. Seat cushions, aircraft insulation, light-weight parts, papers, and even bodies should have been found in broad proximity to the “crash” site–and these haven’t been.

Certainly this would be a breakthrough if these objects turn out to be part of the plane, for you then could mathematically take into account the currents and winds and backtrack to the point of origin. But we aren’t going to count on it.

And in a dramatic development, The Wall Street Journal reports that signals from the plane’s engines indicate the flight flew on for four hours after the transponder stopped sending signals. This theory has been denied by Malaysia.

Delta’s RFP: Aviation Week has a short story that’s filled with news about the Delta Air Lines request for proposals to replace its Boeing 747-400 and Boeing 767-300ER fleets. The story also contains some information about the need for a plane the size of the Bombardier CSeries. Delta wants the Airbus A330neo, the A330 Classic, the A350 or the Boeing 787 (it has left-over, deferred orders from Northwest Airlines on the latter), and it needs a plane with around 5,000nm-6,000nm range (which fits the A330-300/300neo). It also says the Boeing 737-700 isn’t economical and the 737-800 is too big. While not naming the A319 and A320, the Boeing equivalents, we believe the same is true for these aircraft. This suggests the CSeries. Delta also likes the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan.

 64 Comments

 Posted on March 13, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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The case for an NSA in 2025 — successor to 737-8 MAX — (continued)

 Editor’s Note: Given the amount of interest in the prospect of replacements for the single-aisle airplanes, including the Boeing 757, our Guest Columnist provided a follow-up think piece.

By James Krebs

With the reengined Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320 neo families selling like gangbusters, it may seem premature, before one even flies, to be considering a New Small Airplane (NSA) successor to enter service beginning in 2025. But I’m convinced the NSA will come before conventional wisdom expects. The marketplace will demand them.

A combination of market forces could make a compelling case for a NSA in service in 2025.

–   Continuing high fuel prices

–   Increasing urgency to reduce aviation carbon emissions

–   Availability of technology for 20% fuel savings vs 737-8 max and A320 neo (at same seat number) at acceptable risk

–   Traffic growth calling for more seats for 2025 and beyond.

–   Growing pressure from the airlines later in this decade for cleaner, more economical short haul NSA’s

–   Huge global market potential for NSA families — with their performance improved through the years

–   A short haul market share by 2017-18 (neo’s and MAX in service) very disappointing to Boeing.

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 97 Comments

 Posted on February 25, 2014 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi

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