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Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip

Here are some more photos from our DC-7B trip. All photos by Scott Hamilton.

This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?

3 Comments

Posted on May 31, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney

Douglas DC-7, Eastern Airlines DC-7B, Historical Flight Foundation, Military.com

Tariffs won’t be assessed in WTO Airbus, Boeing cases

The decision is in on the appeal of the WTO panel decision in the Airbus and pending on the WTO’s panel findings on Boeing.

The “what’s next” is dispute resolution and, failing this, the prospect of imposing tariffs on Airbus and Boeing airplanes.

This won’t happen. Why? It’s simple: too much is at stake. Neither company wants a trade war.

8 Comments

Posted on May 23, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, WTO, WTO tariffs

McNerney’s interesting comments on the new airplane

We’re off hiatus, having completed several projects that now gives us some time to pay attention to this column.

It didn’t seem to get much pickup but on the Boeing 1Q earnings call, CEO Jim McNerney said something on the call that really perked up our ears.

First, some necessary context.

25 Comments

Posted on April 29, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

737, 737RS, 757, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bomardier, CSeries, Embraer

Odds and Ends: Three drivers for Bombardier; PW GTF gains momentum

1. JP Morgan looks at Bombardier

Aerospace analyst Joe Nadol has an interesting take on Bombardier and the next 12 months. Nadol begins with, “We believe Bombardier may be better positioned now than at any time in the 10+ years we’ve followed the stock,” and continues:

Three Important BBD Drivers: 1) CSeries, 2) CSeries, 3) CSeries. With the business jet and train businesses both poised for solid earnings growth, the CSeries is now clearly set as the key likely driver of the stock. There are two primary issues here. The first is demand, and we believe the program needs to start racking up more orders this year, even by the Paris Air Show in June. We believe there is a high level of interest, and we are fairly confident Bombardier will sell more aircraft. The partnership with Comac that Bombardier announced last week seems to foreshadow meaningful Chinese orders. Bombardier also has nearly $12 bil in financing for CSeries aircraft available from Chinese sources. The second issue is execution. Management noted that Bombardier still expects to fly the aircraft next year and also highlighted some recently achieved milestones for the engine. However, Flight reported in recent weeks that the date for first flight may have slipped by a few months into next fall, so the program does appear to be experiencing at least the normal level of fits and starts. Thus far, the CSeries appears on track overall, but execution obviously remains a major overhang given the complexity of the program and the well-known problems the industry has had meeting cost and schedule targets in recent years.

12 Comments

Posted on April 4, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney

Bombardier

Reports from ISTAT

We were at the ISTAT conference Monday and Tuesday, where 1,250 industry officials attended.

We wrote several stories for Commercial Aviation Online. These are below:

Odds and Ends: Boeing basks in 777 orders as A350 falters

Odds and Ends this week:

Boeing had a good week with 777 orders from a variety of customers, though some were previously unidentified ones that had already been booked. Back in January we predicted that Boeing will see a stream of orders that will justify increased production. Boeing has announced a rate of 8.3 per month and we can reveal it is considering going to 10 per month.
Meanwhile, Airbus confirmed that it faces mounting challenges with the production timeline for the A350. For the moment it is still sticking with the EIS of 2H2013. We fully expect this to slip into 2014. At the moment, our conclusion is that the A350 will be a year late. This may change.
Dominic Gates has this interesting story about Boeing proceeding with a 787-10.
The Air Force Times has an interesting article analyzing the tanker competition.
Airbus and Boeing are engaged in their usual public bickering over the strategies in the A320/737 class. Airbus launched the NEO and claims this provides enough fuel burn reductions to make the program worthwhile. (We think the boost in range to the A320 and A321 have as much to do with the program as anything else.) Airbus is right. Boeing claims re-engining doesn’t provide enough fuel burn benefit to make re-engining worthwhile on a net, all-in cash-on-cash basis to be worthwhile. Boeing makes a good argument on this narrow basis, but this ignores the environmental benefits to re-engining and other factors. Airbus says there isn’t going to be a real convergence of technology until 2025-27 to justify a new airplane. Boeing believes there is enough new technology available to justify a new airplane by 2019. We think they are both right–and both are wrong.
EADS CEO Louis Gallois said the KC-X tanker effort boosted EADS’ standing with the Department of Defense despite losing.
The new PW GTF and CFM LEAP-X engines aren’t in service yet and PW is already working on its next generation GTF and CFM is working on the open rotor. Flight Global has a lengthy story about it.
Aspire Aviation takes a look at Cathay Pacific’s financial results.

14 Comments

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

Airbus, Boeing, EADS, KC-X

2011 Outlook for Aerospace

Note: this is unusually long, 11 pages when printed.

The new year is here and it is time for our annual look-ahead for the big OEMs.

On a macro level, 2011 should be a good year. Airline passenger and cargo traffic recovery should continue. The global economy also is recovering, but it is almost painfully slow to do so. Still, this is better than some of the alternatives.

Airlines and lessors are likely to continue their order stream that resumed in mid-2010 at the Farnborough Air Show. There could be some key orders that will influence the OEMs and their strategies going forward.

On the military front, we are much more limited in our tracking. We follow the KC-X tanker program because the offerings are based on commercial airliners. We slightly follow the P-8A Poseidon for the same reason, but Boeing pretty much has the monopoly for this type airplane, so there isn’t much to follow.

We do closely follow cybersecurity issues, if for no other reason than it is so important but also because key aerospace companies, including Boeing, have major efforts in this arena.

But by and large, we focus on the OEMs, the emerging competitors and the new engines.

So let’s get to it.

10 Comments

Posted on January 3, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

air force tanker, Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Pratt & Whitney

737, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, AVIC, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM International, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Geared Turbo Fan, GTF, LEAP-X

737NG vs A320neo: an interesting chess game

Update, Dec. 13: FlightGlobal has this interview with Ryanair and its critique of the NEO.

Original Post:

The (London) Financial Times has this interview with Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh in which he says there is no compelling reason now to re-engine the 737.

Boeing believes the newly announced Airbus A320neo family merely brings the legacy A320 family to parity with the 737 or at most provides only a 3%-4% direct operating cost advantage to the NEO which can be matched by yet more refinements to the 737.

Airbus refutes Boeing’s conclusions but won’t release its own numbers, regarding them as proprietary. But in a new study, The Business Case for the Bombardier CSeries, by AirInsight, with which we are affiliated, AirInsight’s independent analysis concludes the NEO generally has at best a slight advantage over the 737-700 and 737-800–but nothing to shout about.

56 Comments

Posted on December 10, 2010 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney

737, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, GTF, LEAP-X, Pratt & Whitney

Lessors, banks in blistering critique of Airbus NEO

Our colleagues at Commercial Aviation Online put together the story below on lessor and banker reaction to the Airbus A320neo announcement December 1.

We knew–and previously referenced here–reluctance on the part of these groups to the NEO concept, but even we were stunned by the blistering response toward Airbus.

This is reprinted with permission.

Lessor and banks react to Airbus neo programme

Date:	06/12/2010 11:35
Source:	Commercial Aviation Online
Location:	London

The launch of the Airbus neo programme on 1 December with plans for a 2016 entry into service for the initial model has generated a lot of talk in the aviation finance community, particularly concerning the impact on residual values.

CAO spoke to lessors and bankers about the move and here’s what they had to say:

18 Comments

Posted on December 9, 2010 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier

A320 NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

Airbus NEO won’t kill CSeries: New study

Airbus’ A320 NEO won’t kill the Bombardier CSeries, a new study concludes, issued today by AirInsight.

The study, “The Business Case for the Bombardier CSeries,” which we co-authored, is discussed on the AirInsight blog.

The study began as an update to AirInsight’s report in December 2009 on the prospect of re-engining the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families. As Airbus COO-Customers John Leahy repeatedly asserted that to re-engine the A320 would kill the business case for the CSeries, AirInsight broadened its update into a full, in-depth study. AirInsight concluded that the business case for the CSeries is sound.

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Leeham News and Analysis

Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip

This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?

Tariffs won’t be assessed in WTO Airbus, Boeing cases

McNerney’s interesting comments on the new airplane

Odds and Ends: Three drivers for Bombardier; PW GTF gains momentum

Reports from ISTAT

Read more

Odds and Ends: Boeing basks in 777 orders as A350 falters

2011 Outlook for Aerospace

737NG vs A320neo: an interesting chess game

Lessors, banks in blistering critique of Airbus NEO

Airbus NEO won’t kill CSeries: New study

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