Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The Boeing 767 Cross Section, Part 1 November 24, 2022
- Movie Review: Devotion November 21, 2022
- China will accelerate development of its commercial aerospace sector November 21, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 46. eVTOL comparison with helicopter November 18, 2022
- The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast November 16, 2022
X-Day, Part 2: and the Winner is: Boeing
Boeing has been awarded the contract for 179 KC-X tankers.
What are the ramifications?
Is this contest over?
As we noted in a previous post, not necessarily. A protest can follow. EADS has said it won’t unless it finds something “egregious” in the process, which it has commended so far. But don’t consider it a given that EADS won’t find reason to protest. Still, we think it unlikely based on what we know today.
Why wouldn’t EADS protest?
EADS sorely wants the contract. It would be a huge boost toward its goal of reaching $10bn a year in Pentagon contracts, from $1.5bn today. But by competing for the KC-X contract at the Pentagon’s request to do so, it built up a lot of good will for future contracts. There would be little to gain from a protest.
Will Congress go along? There is a strong EADS contingent.
That’s all it is, a contingent. There aren’t enough EADS supporters to force a reversal. They still could block an award, but if EADS doesn’t put up a fight, it’s unlikely they will, either.
What’s next?
The timeline of what’s next is listed in this post. As the cliche goes, “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.”
X-Day: The winner of the tanker contest announcement at 5:10pm EST
Update, 0930 PST: DOD has confirmed, the award will be announced at 5:10 PM EST and broadcast on The Pentagon Channel.
Original Post:
The Pentagon Channel will provide coverage, if the past is followed today. The time is 5pm EST. Update: A Tweet from AvTips says 4:45pm, without citing sources, so we suggest having everything ready by that time.
You can bet the media in Mobile (AL), Wichita (KS) and Seattle (WA) will also provide breaking news coverage. We know for sure that KIRO-TV plans to do so. We expect Twitter members will be ready to go, include Reuters Aerospace coverage.
Tanker decision expected Thursday, Feb. 24, 5pm EST
It now appears the USAF will announce the tanker contract Thursday, Feb. 24, at 5pm EST. Expectations are that EADS will be awarded the contract, but there have been so many twists and turns that we’re not predicting the outcome.
The greater question will be, Will there be a protest? As we reported Monday, EADS says it won’t protest if it loses provided there is nothing egregious in the selection process. Boeing has clearly been laying the groundwork for a protest, but neither is it certain Boeing will do so if it loses.
Here is the timeline of what happens next:
- The announcement is made.
- The Department of the Air Force has 10 calendar days to brief the losing side.
- The losing side can request an accelerated debrief.
- The losing competitor then has 10 calendar days from the time of the debrief to file the actual protest with the GAO.
- The GAO then has up to 100 calendar days to rule on the protest (they may take less time).
- The results can be: 1.) GAO finds no merit and throws out the entire protest; 2.) GAO sustains part of the protest; 3.) GAO sustains all of the protest.
- The GAO does not rule on whether or not the Department chose the right aircraft, which aircraft was better, etc. It only rules on whether the proper process was followed during the source selection.
- The Department can then accept the ruling and provide a timeline for how they will address the issues the GAO ruled on and determine whether and how it impacts the outcome. Or, they can note the GAO ruling but proceed as originally planned.
Recapping the KC-X contest
With the expectation that the USAF is going to announce its tanker award this week, we’re going to forego our Odds and Ends kick-off and deal with the tanker.
We’re going to try and synopsize many of the issues that are “out there” in cyber-land, to try and make some sense out of what sometimes seems to be a senseless process.
In no particular order, here we go:
Countdown to KC-X award
As Washington (DC) buzzes with the prospect that the Department of Defense will, at long last, announce its award for the KC-X contract before the end of this month, EADS held a press briefing February 16 to lay out its views one last time that its airplane is the best choice for the job.
Boeing made calls to editorial boards last week to make its case.
The process has dragged on so long that we couldn’t help but think of the photo below, purported to be the first air-to-air refueling.
Source: LaGuardia Airport historical photo.
Top DOD buyer signals globalization is reality; tanker contract might come Feb. 25
Two top Defense Department officials today (Feb. 16) told a conference sponsored by Aviation Week magazine that the contract award for the KC-X could be made by the end of the month.
The buzz in Washington is that it will be after the stock market closed on Friday, Feb. 25.
The statements by the DOD officials are summed up nicely in this Defense News article.
At the same Aviation Week conference, the Pentagon’s top buyer, Ashton Carter, repeated remarks he made a week earlier at the Cowen & Co. aerospace and defense investors’ conference February 9. At the Cowen event, the headlines to come out of it were remarks made by Boeing CEO Jim McNerney about the prospect of proceeding with an all-new replacement for the 737.
The headline that did not come out of it was from a speech presented by the Pentagon’s top buyer, Ashton Carter. Elements of his speech did, indeed, make news. However, buried in his speech as the last topic were his comments about globalization and procuring key defense systems from non-US companies.
Is this laying the groundwork for selecting the EADS North America KC-45 tanker in the KC-X competition? DOD Buzz picked up on this, too, but well down its story.
Perhaps this is too much “Kremlinology” but carefully read his remarks:
Australian magazine profile on KC-30A delays
Update, Feb. 15: at the request of the magazine, we have delinked the article.
Here is a synopsis; the magazine reports:
- The delay is now 27 months, with deliveries hoped for in March;
- Writing comprehensive technical manuals for the aircraft and the new boom is taking longer than thought, contributing to but not entirely responsible for the delay;
- The widely-reported boom separation occurred when “the boom’s probe snapped off near the F-16’s receptacle, causing the boom to spring up and strike the underside of the tanker, snapping off one of the two guiding fins and causing the boom to oscillate wildly until it detached from its supporting mast,” falling into the ocean;
- As a result, the Spanish authorities (who have jurisdiction over Airbus Military, which is headquartered in Spain) withdrew the flight permits for the RAAF KC-30As “until such time as the aircraft is declared safe to fly again….”;
- Because of the delays, Airbus “has been liable for liquidated damages on the contract…they are believed to include the cost of using air-to-air refueling tankers from Omega Air and the USAF” for the RAAF’s F/A-18s.
Original Post:
Australian Aviation has a five page profile on the delays to the RAAF KC-30A, including last December’s boom failure.
The PDF may be downloaded here: RAAF KC-30A Delays
Odds and Ends: Leahy staying, not going; tanker and other things
We posted an item Friday that normally would have waited until this edition of Odds and Ends, but the news that John Leahy might leave Airbus next year couldn’t wait. Aviation Week broke the story.
But we spoke with Airbus Toulouse Sunday and the company denied the story.
PNAA: Split buy is only solution for tanker buy
Day 2 of the PNAA conference: Richard Aboulafia, consultant of The Teal Group, said that a split buy is the only way the USAF will be able to procure the KC-X tanker.
Aboulafia said the decision no longer effectively rests with the Air Force, but with Congress. Each political party has the ability to block a sole-source selection, Aboulafia says.
Other thoughts from Aboulafia:
PNAA conference: EADS likely to win tanker contest
We’re at Day 1 of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA) and at the Defense Focus Day co-organized by the Pacific Northwest Defense Coalition, consultant Michel Merluzeau of G2 Solutions (Kirkland, WA) predicted EADS will likely win the KC-X competition.
Before the Francophiles go crazy, Merluzeau favors Boeing’s KC-767.